29.06.08. Tymoshenko ønsker folkeafstemning om NATO

28.06.08. High level NATO delegation in outreach visit to Ukraine

28.06.08. Moscow ready for major confrontations with pro-western  Ukraine

28.06.08. Russian-Ukrainian relations reveal deeper problems

04.06.08. Kiev [Kyiv] and Moscow in dispute over naval port

29.05.08. 'Orange' allies fight over economic policy

21.05.08. Yushchenko will be marginalized by constitutional and political instability

21.05.08. Tymoshenko og Jusjtjenko konkurrerer om magten i Kiev (eng.)

16.05.08. Ukrainian politics stands on the brink, again

16.05.08. Yushchenko, Tymoshenko clash over privatization

20.04.08. Menneskerettigheder: Ukraine dømt i to sager i Strasbourg

20.04.08. Tre politifolk dømt for Gongadze-mordet, men sagen er ikke slut

10.04.08. PACE Monitor Hanne Severinsen becomes Yulia Tymoshenko's adviser

03.04.08. NATO: Ukraine vil få MAP-status snarest

29.03.08. Ukrainsk hæder til tidligere MF'er

27.03.08. Police officers found guilty in death of journalist Georgy Gongadze

27.03.08. Anti-crisis Managers of Yulia Tymoshenko

21.03.08. Link til Hanne Severinsens sidste Europarådsrapport om Ukraine

14.03.08. Yushchenko plots his premier's removal

14.03.08. Ukraine, Gazprom reach agreement on 2008 gas deliveries

14.03.08. Ukrainian parliament unblocked, NATO dispute off agenda

09.03.08. Ukraine: Gas Crisis Averted, But Underlying Problems Remain

09.03.08. Yushchenko looks to grand coalition to replace Tymoshenko

07.03.08. Ukrainsk modstand mod tyskerne under krigen (dokumentation)

07.03.08. Ukrainsk modstand mod tyskerne under krigen (dokumentation)

Det ukrainske sikkerhedspoliti SBU har offentliggjort dokumenter, som viser, at ukrainerne ydede aktiv modstand mod den tyske besættelse, og at den øverste ledelse af de ukrainske nationalister nægtede at deltage i nedslagtningen af jøder. Dokumenterne bringes her for første gang i en dansk oversættelse.

"Den dag krigen brød ud (juni 1941) myrdede bolsjevikkerne ca. 10.000 ukrainske politiske fanger i byen Lvivs fængsler. I hvert af fængslerne i byerne Lutsk, Rivne, Stanislav, Drohobytj, Dubno, Sambir, Ternopil, Vinnytsa, Berditjev og andre steder myrdedes på samme tidspunkt flere tusinde ukrainske politiske fanger. I de efterfølgende dage myrdedes ca. 50.000 ukrainske politiske fanger.

                      Bag bolsjevikkernes frontlinjer gennemførte medlemmer af Organisationen af Ukrainske Nationalister (OUN) aktioner, som gik ud på at forhindre ungdommen i at blive tvangsudskrevet til Den røde Hær som kanonføde, at skaffe sig våben fra Den røde Hær, som var i opløsning, at yde aktivt modstand mod det sovjetiske sikkerhedspoliti (NKVD), samt forberede en ukrainsk magtovertagelse, inden de fremrykkende tyskere fik etableret deres herredømme.

                      Den 29. og 30. juni 1941, efter Den røde Hærs tilbagetog og umiddelbart inden tyskernes indtog, lykkedes det OUNs undergrundsbevægelse i byen Lviv at etablere kontrol med Lviv. I nogen af gaderne stod der endnu sovjetiske kampvogne, mens der i andre gader allerede hang ukrainske faner og var malet ukrainske slagord på husmurene, plantet og skrevet af de ukrainske revolutionære kræfter. De ukrainske delinger etablerede også kontrol med radiostationen.

                      Den 30. juni holdt det ukrainske samfund i byen Lviv et stormøde under ledelse af OUNs hidtige undergrundsledelse. På mødet valgtes byen Lvivs nye ukrainske styre, hvis medlemmer svor troskab til Ukraine. Denne beslutning blev taget for at komme tyskerne i forkøbet, hvis tropper allerede var ved at rykke ind i byen. Desuden blev det besluttet at indkalde til et nationalt råd, som skulle udråbe Den uafhængige ukrainske stat, der skulle overtage hele magten i landet.

                      Om aftenen den 30. juni 1941 trådte det nationale råd sammen i Lviv og udråbte genetableringen af Den uafhængige ukrainske stat og den uafhængige ukrainske regering med Jaroslav Stetsko i spidsen. Udråbelsen af den ukrainske stat kom efterfølgende til at få stor betydning for det ukrainske folks holdning til den tyske politik.

                      Allerede om aftenen den 30. juni begyndte Lvivs radiostation opkaldt efter nationalistlederen Jevhen Konovalets at kringkaste sine udsendelser.

                      Kort tid efter tvang Gestapo, som var ankommet i kølvandet på den fremrykkende tyske hær, ukrainerne til at lukke deres radiostation, og standse udgivelsen af uafhængige ukrainske aviser, som var begyndt at udkomme i Lviv. Tyskerne forbød også manifestationer i forbindelse med begravelsen af de ukrainere, som var myrdet af bolsjevikkerne.

                      Tyskerne stillede den nye ukrainske leder Jaroslav Stetsko overfor et ultimatum og forlangte en tilbagekaldelse af udråbelsen af den ukrainske stat, samt en selvopløsning af den ukrainske regering.

                      Efterfølgende blev der afholdt en konference med deltagelse af ledelsen af OUN og nogle af medlemmerne af regeringen. Konferencen godkendte Stetsko-regeringens afvisning af det tyske ultimatum. Jaroslav Stetsko udtalte: ”Om så jeg bliver skudt, vil jeg opfylde min pligt overfor det ukrainske folks vilje og vil ikke gå med til en selvopløsning af den ukrainske regering”. Konferencen besluttede at stå urokkeligt fast på den historiske udråbelse af den ukrainske stat den 30. juni, afvise tyskernes krav, fortsætte med at overtage en stadig større del af myndigheden over landet og mobilisere de brede folkelige masser til kamp for Ukraines fuldstændige uafhængighed.

                      En Gestapo-agent udførte efterfølgende et attentat mod den ukrainske regeringschef, Jaroslav Stetsko, mens denne sad i sin bil. Kuglerne sårede regeringslederens chauffør.

                      Repræsentanter for Gestapo foreslog ad forskellige kanaler ukrainerne at foranstalte en tre dage lang pogrom mod jøderne. Tyskerne foreslog: ”I stedet for at afholde storstilede begravelser af ukrainske politiske fanger myrdet af bolsjevikkerne, er det meget bedre at foranstalte en hævnaktion mod jøderne. De tyske myndigheder vil ikke stå i vejen for det”.

                      Da lederne af OUN blev gjort bekendt med dette forslag, meddelte de til medlemmerne af det ukrainske samfund, at der er tale om en tysk provokation beregnet på at kompromitere ukrainerne og give det tyske politi et påskud for at ”etablere ro og orden” og, hvad der var værre, at aflede ukrainernes kræfter fra de politiske problemer og kampen for det statslige uafhængighed for Ukraine.

                      Den 2. alukrainske OUN-kongres fordømte enhver form for jødepogromer og besættelsesmagtens forsøg på at bortlede folkemassernes opmærksomhed fra frihedskampens grundlæggende udfordringer. Fra starten af den tyske besættelse forbød OUN ukrainerne at deltage i jødepogromer, og opfordrede dem til i stedet aktivt at modsætte sig de tyske provokationer. Kun takket være OUN-folkenes beslutsomhed lykkedes det at forhindre et massemord på jøderne i Lviv og andre ukrainske byer de første dage efter bolsjevikkernes tilbagetog på baggrund af bolsjevikkernes drab på 80.000 ukrainske politiske fanger og på trods af det tyske hemmelige politi Gestapos talrige forsøg på at anspore ukrainerne til at begå overgreb på jøderne som hævn for bolsjevikkernes drab på de ukrainske politiske fanger.

                      I de første dage af juli, lige efter den ukrainske uafhængighedserklæring, arresterede Gestapo OUNs leder, Stepan Bandera, og førte ham til Berlin, hvorfra han blev sendt i KZ-lejr.

                      I første halvdel af juli arresterede Gestapo den nyudnævnte ukrainske regeringsleder, Jaroslav Stetsko, og nogle af hans nærmeste medarbejdere. Sammen med mange andre prominente ukrainske eksilledere forblev de i KZ-lejr resten af krigen.

                      I første halvdel af juli udsendte egnskommandanten for OUN og medlem af OUNs eksekutivkomite Ivan Klymiv-Legenda et direktiv til medlemmerne om ikke at rette sig efter de tyske militære myndigheders befalinger til ukrainerne om at aflevere våben, men i stedet at sørge for at skaffe sig nye forsyningerne af våben og gemme de eksisterende. Samtidig med dette hemmelige dekret til medlemmerne af OUN udsendte han en åben appel til det ukrainske folk om ikke at aflevere deres våben til tyskerne, men bruge dem til forsvaret for den ukrainske stat.

                      I første halvdel af juli indbød tyskerne Ivan Klymiv-Legenda til en ”vigtig konference”. Denne afslog invitationen og svarede i et brev, at han var godt klar over, at der var tale om et forsøg på at lokke ham i en fælde. I brevet protesterede han mod den tyske besættelse af Ukraine og forsikrede om, at det ukrainske folk ikke ville acceptere den tyske besættelse, ligesom det ikke ville acceptere den bolsjevikkiske ditto. ”Hvis I insisterer på at føre denne form for politik -,  skrev han i brevet, - så vil I snart blive nødt til at flygte fra Ukraine over stok og sten, som I gjorde det i 1918, da det ukrainske folk rejste sig mod den tyske besættelse under ledelse af Overhøvding Semjon Petljura”. ”I er kommet til os som besættere, men den ukrainske sorte muld, som I så begærligt tragter efter, vil opsluge jer og blive jeres grav”, skrev egnskommandanten for OUN til de nye besættere."

09.03.08. Yushchenko looks to grand coalition to replace Tymoshenko

Taras Kuzio

e-POSHTA March 7, 2008 / e-POSHTA 5 bereznia 2008

On March 15 the government of Yulia Tymoshenko will mark its first 100 days in office, a period that has been a baptism by fire. Not only has the government faced relentless attacks from the opposition Party of Regions (PRU), it has also faced a parliamentary lockout and an antagonistic Russia. As former National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary Volodymyr Horbulin noted, each time Tymoshenko heads the government, Russia deploys energy pressure against Ukraine.

But this period has also been plagued by blatant attempts to undermine the government from its own coalition partners and ostensible allies. Six days after Tymoshenko was confirmed as prime minister on December 18, President Viktor Yushchenko appointed Raisa Bohatyryova as NSDC secretary. Bohatyryova was head of the Regions parliamentary faction and shared a parliamentary office with Regions campaign manager Borys Kolesnikov.

The six-day gap between Tymoshenko’s confirmation and Bohatyryova’s appointment was no coincidence, but part of what Kyiv insiders have dubbed “Operation Baloga.” The alleged mastermind, presidential chief of staff Viktor Baloga, is more ruthless than his predecessors, Oleksandr Zinchenko (both were members of the hard-line, anti-Yushchenko Social Democratic Party-United) and Oleh Rybachuk.

Operation Baloga grew out of the spring 2007 constitutional crisis, which collapsed when the PRU agreed to pre-term elections on September 30. Yushchenko’s side of the bargain was a promise to Regions to support a grand coalition with his Our Ukraine party after the elections. During the elections Yushchenko actively campaigned for a “democratic” (i.e. Orange) coalition.” But when his Orange Revolution ally, the Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) drew to within 3% of Regions, Yushchenko could not follow through on his grand coalition promise. BYuT’s improved election results, coupled with the static performance Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defense (NUNS) bloc, was further complicated by increased hostility within NUNS to such a grand coalition. Leading NUNS members had suffered under the Viktor Yanukovych government in fall 2006.

Yushchenko therefore decided to continue his multi-vector policies of supporting both Orange and grand coalitions, a position that he has espoused since Our Ukraine’s foundation in 2001. Following the 2006 parliamentary elections Yushchenko negotiated a grand coalition through Yuriy Yekhanurov and an Orange coalition through Roman Bezsmertny.

The result of Yushchenko’s post-2007 maneuvering has been an Orange coalition inside parliament and a grand coalition ensconced in the NSDC and presidential administration. Since Yushchenko came to power in 2005 the NSDC has been continually used as a counter-weight to governments seen by Yushchenko as hostile,” whether headed by Tymoshenko (2005 and 2007) or Yanukovych (2006-2007).

Baloga and seven allies from NUNS resigned from Yushchenko’s bloc as part of a larger strategy to undermine the Tymoshenko government. This five-point strategy was drawn up during a secret February meeting between Yushchenko and Yanukovych and is planned to be completed by April 1. The Russian leadership endorsed the plan when Yushchenko visited Moscow in January. The basic steps are:

1. NUNS withdraws from the Orange coalition. Baloga reportedly has 22 allies within NUNS’s 72 deputies, seven of whom have already resigned. For a faction to withdraw from a coalition requires a majority vote which, in the case of NUNS, is a minimum of 37 deputies. An additional 15 deputies will to be pressured to defect.

2. A vote of no confidence in the Tymoshenko government. The parliamentary blockade has prevented a vote on the government’s program, which would have legally prevented a vote of no confidence for 12 months.

3. The acting government will be sidelined by a new government headed by Baloga and with Yanukovych as parliamentary speaker. The Baloga government would be backed by a re-organized grand coalition that includes a wing of NUNS.

4. The Baloga government and grand coalition would support Yushchenko’s version of constitutional reforms that give back powers to the president.

5. The Baloga government and grand coalition would ensure Yushchenko’s re-election for a second term and Yanukovych would agree to not stand.

These five components are inherently unstable, irrational, and incompatible. However, Yushchenko is dominated completely by his chief of staff, who has convinced him of two key factors: First Tymoshenko is disloyal and has decided to stand as a presidential candidate. Second, Baloga can “guarantee” Yushchenko’s re-election through an alliance with Regions, whose political machine can ensure his win in eastern Ukraine. But with a public approval rating of 6-10%, Yushchenko could not win an election even through fraud.

Tymoshenko’s personal and BYuT’s ratings are three times as high as those of Yushchenko and NUNS. If pre-term parliamentary elections were held today, BYuT would place first with an increase of 50 seats, bringing it to over 200. NUNS and Regions would secure fewer seats than in 2007. The only way Yushchenko can be re-elected in a free election is through an alliance with Tymoshenko as his prime minister, repeating their successful 2004 alliance.

A wide-ranging discussion in the respected weekly Zerkalo nedeli showed that Yushchenko’s campaign to re-take presidential powers through further constitutional reforms is backed by only one out of the five factions in parliament, NUNS, which is also the most unstable faction.

In the meantime, Yushchenko’s continued inability to choose between grand and Orange coalitions or to reconcile himself with a Tymoshenko government, combined with his desperation to get himself re-elected is undermining his own policies, including his goal of receiving a NATO Membership Action Plan at next month’s summit in Bucharest.

(Zerkalo nedeli, March 1-7, Ukrayinska pravda, February 19-29, glavred.info, February 15, vvnews.info, February 21-22)

 

09.03.08. Ukraine: Gas Crisis Averted, But Underlying Problems Remain

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/3/e080d871-0236-4baf-b4d1-7e89f9c87160.html
March 6, 2008

By Claire Bigg

Russia on March 5 resumed natural-gas supplies to Ukraine, ending the latest gas feud between the ex-Soviet neighbors.
 

[ ... ]

A key sore point is the involvement of middleman companies in the gas trade between the two countries -- RosUkrEnergo, half-owned by Gazprom; and UkrGazEnergo, owned by RosUkrEnergo and Ukraine's state gas company, Nafothaz.

Ukraine's prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, has been campaigning for the elimination of what she says is an opaque mechanism to embezzle vast fortunes at the expense of Ukrainian consumers.

Moscow has consistently demurred, a stance widely seen as dictated by a small group of elites profiting directly from the scheme. Roman Kupchinsky, an RFE/RL energy analyst, says Moscow could also be using the intermediaries as a bargaining chip with Ukraine.

"The intermediaries are not in Russia's interest either, as a country. Russia loses taxes because of intermediaries, it gives away money for no good reason to intermediaries, and it doesn't really fulfill any role," Kupchinsky says, adding that there must be a reason why Russia insists on the intermediaries.

"Gazprom wants to get into the Ukrainian domestic market, it wants 50 percent of the market," Kupchinsky notes. But he says that "Ukrainians won't allow that," because it would bankrupt their own Naftohaz.

Playing Politics

Gazprom has spared no effort to convince the world that its recurrent gas standoffs with Kyiv are purely economic. In reality, few doubt they have strong political overtones.

The latest dispute dealt a blow to the already fragile coalition between President Viktor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, who both rose to power in the 2005 Orange Revolution after reversing the presidential victory of Moscow's anointed candidate.

[ ... ]

The row has also prompted fresh charges that Moscow is using its vast energy resources as a political weapon. Federico Bordonaro, a Rome-based analyst with the "Power And Interest News Report," an independent organization studying international relations, says: "Gazprom's moves are not entirely due to business problems. I think Gazprom is striking back at Europe, firstly because Europe recognized Kosovo's independence without listening to Russia's concerns, and secondly because Ukraine is heading toward NATO integration."
 

[ ... ]

Bordonaro says the bad blood between Moscow and Kyiv is pushing Europe to seek alternative energy routes. This includes efforts to breathe new life into the Nabucco project, a pipeline that would bypass Russia by pumping gas from the Caspian and Central Asian regions to Europe via Turkey and the Balkans.

Complete article: http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/3/e080d871-0236-4baf-b4d1-7e89f9c87160.html 

14.03.08. Ukrainian parliament unblocked, NATO dispute off agenda

http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372878
March 12, 2008

By Pavel Korduban

The opposition Party of Regions (PRU) of former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych has finally backed off its brinksmanship games over Ukraine’s application for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). The PRU and their allies, the Communists, had blocked the parliamentary rostrum since the end of January, protesting against a letter in which President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and Parliamentary Speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk asked NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to give the green light to Ukraine joining MAP. The PRU returned to the session hall on March 6, realizing that Yushchenko would consider dissolving parliament. The Ukrainian parliament is now back to normal operations.

The opposition had demanded that Yatsenyuk recall his signature from the MAP letter, arguing that parliament did not authorize him to sign it, and that parliament should set the date for a NATO membership referendum (see EDM, February 14). As support for membership in the Alliance has hardly ever been higher than 25%, the opposition believed that a referendum would postpone the membership issue indefinitely. The blockade of parliament suspended the process of forming Tymoshenko’s cabinet, and an early election could even threaten the prospect of WTO entry for Ukraine this year.

The coalition of Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense (NUNS) and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) did not bow to pressure. They declared their readiness for a dissolution of parliament and another early election, despite the fact that Yushchenko dissolved the previous parliament less than a year ago. Yanukovych increased pressure on the coalition, threatening to take his followers to launch popular protests against NATO membership.

The constitution allows the president to dissolve parliament if it fails to assemble for 30 days. Yushchenko said on February 27 that he was not ready to dissolve the assembly, although he admitted that he might eventually do so. Yanukovych responded to that message on March 4, saying that if the opposition’s demands on NATO were not met, the PRU “will address the Ukrainian people and start mass protests.”

This was followed within hours by a warning from National Security and Defense Council Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova, who is ironically still formally a member of the PRU, that Yushchenko might launch the process of parliamentary dissolution if the lawmakers did not resume working within “the next couple of days.” Bohatyryova accused both the coalition and the opposition of disrupting parliament’s work, and she warned against giving ultimatums to the president.

This warning worked. On March 6, all parliamentary caucuses but the Communists agreed to resume normal work. The agreement that they reached read more like an act of capitulation by the PRU, rather than a compromise solution, as Vladyslav Kaskiv, one of the leaders of NUNS, noted. The PRU withdrew its demands regarding the MAP letter and for a resolution saying that “a decision on an international agreement on Ukraine joining NATO shall be taken only as a result of a national referendum,” was passed by 248 votes in the 450-seat body.

Both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko had asserted earlier that Ukraine would join NATO only after a referendum. Yushchenko accepted this PRU demand in 2006, when he signed the National Unit Declaration (Universal in Ukrainian), and Tymoshenko has never been against a referendum. Thus the PRU did not achieve anything by disrupting parliament’s work for more than a month, but its relations with its main partner in parliament, the Communists, worsened, as the Communists did not accept the March 6 resolution and were not against another early election.

Although all of the three major parties – the PRU, NUNS, and BYuT – in February declared readiness for an early election, none of them really wanted it. BYuT is satisfied with its current status as senior coalition partner. The NUNS bloc, weakened by an internal dispute that culminated in an exodus of several influential members from the bloc’s main party, Our Ukraine, including Yushchenko’s main aide Viktor Baloha (see EDM, February 20), was probably the least ready for an election. The PRU is not in the best shape either: public opinion polls show that it is currently less popular than BYuT, and the March 1 congress of deputies in Severodonetsk confirmed that several influential PRU members do not support Yanukovych’s line (see EDM, March 5).

A “Protocol of Understanding” released by parliament’s press service on March 6, stipulated that parliament would shortly consider a new bill on the Cabinet of Ministers, bills for completing WTO entry, and bills limiting deputy immunity from prosecution, it will also discuss an action plan for the Tymoshenko cabinet. Parliament on March 7 voted against including the deputy immunity bill on the agenda, although during last year’s early election campaign canceling deputy immunity was one of the main promises of most of the parties now represented in parliament.

(Interfax-Ukraine, February 27, March 4, 6; UNIAN, Channel 5, March 6, www.rada.gov.ua, March 6, 7)

14.03.08. Ukraine, Gazprom reach agreement on 2008 gas deliveries

http://www.kyivpost.com/top/28602
Mar 13 2008

MOSCOW (AP) - Russian state-controlled natural gas monopoly OAO Gazprom and Ukraine on Thursday announced an agreement on gas deliveries for the rest of the year, apparently putting an end to a dispute that had been watched nervously in Western Europe.

The agreement, according to a statement from Gazprom, specified prices for future deliveries and for gas delivered in the first two months of this year. The announcement comes after talks between Gazprom President Alexei Miller and Oleg Dubina, head of the Ukrainian natural gas company Naftogaz.

The Russian company previously cut shipments by up to 50 percent for several days last week.

That reduction caused anxiety in Western European countries that get much of their Russian gas by pipelines that cross Ukraine. However, no downstream supply problems were reported.

The agreement takes a step toward streamlining the complicated gas trade with Ukraine, where supplies come from several countries and have gone through a web of intermediary companies that critics say are essentially mechanisms for siphoning money into private pockets.

Ukraine buys gas both from Russia and from former Soviet Central Asian states; all the gas is delivered to Ukraine in pipelines controlled by Gazprom. Previously, the gas has been purchased from RosUkrEnergo, a middleman company half-owned by Gazprom, and then resold to UkrGazEnergo, another intermediary, which delivered some of the gas itself and sold the remainder to Naftogaz.

However, the new agreement specifies that from now on "the purchaser at the border with Ukraine will be Naftogaz."

The statement did not specify whether Switzerland-based RosUkrEnergo will continue to be involved in the trade. Gazprom officials could not immediately be reached for clarification.

The agreement says Ukraine will pay $179.5 per 1,000 cubic meters for Central Asian gas, but will pay nearly double that amount - $315 - for Russian-origin gas that was delivered in the first two months of this year.

It also says Gazprom-affiliated companies will be guaranteed sales of at least 7.5 billion cubic meters of gas to Ukraine in April-December.

"This is a big improvement for both Gazprom and Ukraine. Commonsense prevailed. Any solution that avoids a disruption of European supplies is positive, but this appears to suggest that relations between the two in the future will be much more transparent than they have been," said Geoff Smith, deputy head of research at the Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.

However, the agreement notes that negotiations on prices for next year are continuing, hinting that Ukraine faces a significant hike in 2009.
Gazprom announced this week that it had reached agreement with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to purchase gas next year at "European prices," which Gazprom has said are expected to be around $350 per 1,000 cubic meters.

14.03.08. Yushchenko plots his premier's removal

March 11 2008
 

Tymoshenko government completes its first 100 days in office on March 15

SIGNIFICANCE

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been under continuous pressure from her supposed ally, President Viktor Yushchenko. His inability to work with her since he entered politics in late 2001 is due to their differences over ideology, how to deal with corruption and the traditional role of women. The situation is complicated by the president's search for a partner who will ensure his re-election for a second term.
 

ANALYSIS

Since the coalition government's parliamentary confirmation on December 18, the president and his chief of staff, Viktor Baloha, have launched a relentless barrage of denunciations, threats and demands against the government. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko's public disagreements allowed Russia to play them off during the gas crisis (see RUSSIAIUKRAINE: Internal rivalry could undo gas deal - February 19, 2008).
 

In February, Baloha and six other deputies resigned from the Our Ukraine (NU)-People's Self Defence (NS) bloc, while remaining in the NU-NS parliamentary group. The 'Orange' coalition, established after the September 30 pre-term elections, has 228 deputies in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada, 156 from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) faction and 72 from NU-NS. This slim majority of three is really lower, as not all NU-NS deputies signed the coalition agreement. Further resignations could lead to the disintegration of the coalition.
 

Ukrainian legislation requires a majority of deputies in a parliamentary group to approve withdrawing from a coalition. For NU¬NS, withdrawing from the Orange coalition would require a minimum of 37 deputies to support such a step. Currently, just 22 NU-NS deputies support Baloha and his dissidents (see UKRAINE: Indiscipline spoils political effectiveness - February 22, 2008).
 

Divided loyalties. Since Yushchenko established NU in 2001, following the parliamentary vote of confidence in his government, it has been divided into two wings:
 

One wing, aligned with BYuT, draws on such traditional national-democratic parties as Rukh.
 

The other, aligned with the Party of Regions, which is currently in opposition, draws on pragmatic businessmen and centrists, many of whom worked for former President Leonid Kuchma's administration.

Since the 2002 parliamentary elections, Yushchenko and NU have switched between Tymoshenko and the Kuchma camp (embodied since 2005 in Regions):
 

2002-03. Yushchenko and NU alternated between allying with the radical opposition -- BYuT and the Socialists (SPU) --and joining pro-Kuchma centrists.
 

2004. At 'Orange Revolution' round tables brokered by the EU, Yushchenko negotiated a compromise with Kuchma that led to his election on December 26 in exchange for constitutional reform and elite immunity.
 

2006. Following the March elections, the president authorised NU campaign leader Roman Beszmertny to negotiate an Orange coalition with BYuT and SPU, while Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov negotiated a 'grand coalition' with Regions. Yushchenko would not support Tymoshenko's return as prime minister -- the price of an Orange coalition.
 

2007. To resolve the constitutional crisis, Yushchenko and Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych came to an agreement to hold fresh elections. After the September poll and protracted negotiations, an Orange coalition was formed with Tymoshenko as prime minister. Tymoshenko was confirmed at a second vote on December 18, after a first vote seven days earlier failed to garner sufficient support.
 

Parallel coalition. Six days after Tymoshenko's confirmation, Regions parliamentary group leader Raisa Bohatyriova was appointed secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC), creating an extra-parliamentary grand coalition of the presidential secretariat and NSDC to counter-balance the Orange government (see UKRAINE: President's plots vs premier will backfire - January 4, 2008). Bohatyriova is a close ally of Borys Kolesnikov who, as head of the Regions election campaign, negotiated the spring 2007 compromise. Yushchenko has used the NSDC largely to counter-balance governments he does not control -- Tymoshenko in 2005 and since 2007, and Yanukovych in 2006-07.
 

The creation of coalitions inside and outside parliament reflects four factors:
 

Indecisiveness. Yushchenko has long been unable to choose between aligning with, or against, Tymoshenko.
 

Ideological differences. In UK terms, BYuT is closer to Margaret Thatcher's radical reform 'dries', while Yushchenko is closer to moderate Conservative one-nation 'wets'.
 

Corruption. Tymoshenko and Yushchenko differ in their attitudes to battling corruption, particularly in the energy sector. Tymoshenko seeks to remove such non-transparent gas intermediaries as RosUkrEnergo, while Yushchenko supports them. Yekhanurov's government included RosUkrEnergo in the January 2006 gas agreement; BYuT backed a no-confidence motion in the government.
 

Presidential election. Yushchenko remains undecided with whom -- Tymoshenko or Regions -- he will align himself for the January 2010 presidential election.

Rapprochement with Regions. Yushchenko is increasingly inclined to cooperate with Regions because only they would agree to give up the prime minister's position to an NU technocrat acceptable to Yushchenko. An Orange coalition would inevitably propose Tymoshenko as prime minister, as in recent elections BYuT has gained more votes than NU (2006) and NU¬NS (2007).
 

In 2006, Yushchenko and Yanukovych negotiated a deal with Yekhanurov continuing as prime minister; the grand coalition now being negotiated would replace Tymoshenko with Baloha. In both deals, Yanukovych becomes Rada speaker.
 

Yushchenko's increasing alignment towards Regions for the presidential election would require the removal of the Tymoshenko government through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. The presidential strategy seeks to increase support for such a step by lobbying within NU-NS to obtain the required majority among businessmen and centrists, forming a new pro-presidential 'party of power'. Oleh Rybachuk, Baloha's predecessor as chief of staff in 2005-06 and a long-term Yushchenko ally, was removed as presidential adviser on March 4 after he criticised Baloha's aggressive strategy.
 

Outlook. The strategy has four pitfalls:
 

It assumes that Yushchenko's re-election for a second term may be best ensured through an alliance with Regions negotiated through Baloha and Kolesnikov. Success depends on persuading Yanukovych not to stand as a candidate, as Regions' political machine and Baloha's control of regional governors brings out the east Ukrainian vote for Yushchenko. This would require a return to the abuse of the state's 'administrative resource' in elections.
 

Pushing Tymoshenko into opposition a second time would transform her into a martyr who would position herself as the only leader still loyal to the Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko excels in opposition and her personal ratings are three times Yushchenko's. The 2007 elections showed that, within the Orange camp, only BYuT has any following in eastern Ukraine, while in the 2006 and 2007 elections, NU and NU-NS took first place in only four and one of the west Ukrainian regions respectively.
 

Regions and BYuT, whose parliamentary groups together comprise 74% of Rada deputies, both oppose Yushchenko's plans to overturn the 2006 constitutional compromise and return to a presidential system. Ukraine's current parliamentary system has strong support from Ukraine's political and business elites.
 

The strategy would lead to an irrevocable split in NU-NS, with BYuT picking up most of its deputies. Beszmertny's poor track record in creating presidential parties of power since 1998, when the People's Democratic Party was his first failure, coupled with Baloha's failure to revitalise NU, which obtained just 14% of the vote in both the 2006 and 2007 elections, does not inspire confidence in the success of the latest attempt to set up a pro-presidential party.

CONCLUSION: Yushchenko's seeming preference for an alliance with Regions over an Orange coalition will force Tymoshenko into opposition, from where she will be well placed to win the 2010 presidential election.
Keywords: EE, RUCIS, Ukraine, Russia, politics, constitution, corruption, election, government, legislation, opposition, party, economy, industry, corporate, energy, gas, reform, regional

21.03.08. Link til Hanne Severinsens sidste Europarådsrapport om Ukraine

Hanne Severinsen var i Kiev i januar for at lave sin sidste rapport for Europarådets parlamentariske forsamling om Ukraine. Rapporten er nu færdig og er lagt ud på Europarådets hjemmeside:

http://assembly.coe.int/ASP/NewsManager/EMB_NewsManagerView.asp?ID=3649&L=2 

 
27.03.08. Anti-crisis Managers of Yulia Tymoshenko
by Serhiy Leshchenko, UP
Original article in Ukrainian by Serhiy Leshchenko, UP
Translated by Anna Platonenko
Oleh Dubyna

Mr. Dubyna became Yulia Tymoshenko's successor in 2001, right after she had been forced to resign from her post as a Vice Prime Minister in Viktor Yushchenko's government.
 

The newcomer was personally introduced into big Ukrainian politics by Leonid Kuchma, who was impressed with Mr. Dubyna's results achieved at KGMK (Mining and Metallurgy Kombinat) Kryvorizhstal JSC: back in that time the enterprise produced its first major revenue. Mr. Kuchma once stated in his interview with “Vyluchne Telebachennya” (“Street Television”) that he would place Mr. Dubyna “under his personal protection” and referred to him as an example to others.
 

In the mid 90's Mr. Dubyna used to work at the Dzerzhysnky metallurgical complex. This is where he first became acquainted with Viktor Pinchuk and could not come to an understanding with Ihor Kolomoysky and his partner Vadym Shulman. And there, at the complex, according to some sources, Mr. Dubyna was once attacked with a knife, but was lucky not to receive any serious injuries.
 

The President's future son-in-law took Mr. Dubyna to Alchevsk metallurgical complex, where the situation was indeed grave. Mr. Dubyna was literally accompanied by armed security personnel.
 

He was later transferred to the management of Kryvorizhstal JSC, the leader of Ukrainian metallurgy, and managed to succeed in overcoming the crisis owing to, as they say, a “strict financial discipline”. As a matter of fact, Kryvorizhstal JSC simply avoided paying off many creditors' debts.
 

Mr. Dubyna enjoyed the support of Leonid Kuchma and from time to time, still being a director of the metallurgical complex, was called to breakfast with him. Perhaps, back then the ex-President saw his younger self 20 years ago in the red-haired manager.
 

In 2000 there was an incident with the participation of Mr. Dubyna and Slovyansky bank, which later fell first victim of the abolishment of the future coalition financial backing.
 

Slovyansky bank had been financing Kryvorizhstal JSC long before Mr. Dubyna's appearance, and the bank had managed to return the loans before the new director was appointed. Having settled at the enterprise, Mr. Dubyna demanded that all the agreements be cancelled. On being refused, he gave a warning: “Then I will let the Father know”.
 

Yes, “Father” must have probably thought for the first time that Ukraine did not need such a bank as Slovyansky.
 

In winter 2001 Mr. Kuchma visited Kryvorizhstal JSC, where Oleh Dubyna managed to strengthen the ex-President's confidence in the efficiency of the enterprise management. Mr. Kuchma, who was already involved in Gongadze case back in that time, was also to face a public demonstration, initiated by the enterprise workers.
 

Being deeply moved by such an order at the enterprise, Mr. Kuchma stated that he personally removed Kryvorizhstal JSC from the privatization list. A couple of years later Leonid Danylovych understood that Kryvorizhstal JSC was destined to collapse and eventually fall into oblivion without the financial backing of such investors as Viktor Pinchuk and Rinat Akhmetov.
 

When Mr. Dubyna was appointed Vice Prime Minister, Viktor Yushchenko confessed that after the personal meeting with the new deputy, he took quite a ‘shine' to him. After Viktor Yushchenko's resignation Mr. Dubyna was promoted to the first Vice Prime Minister in Anatoliy Kinakh's government.
 

By a twist of fate, that very time Mr. Dubyna had an assistant Ihor Voronin, the present head of UkrGazEnergo Company, the subsidiary of RosUkrEnergo at the Ukrainian market.
 

And, by another twist of fate, it was Mr. Dubyna, who took measures in order to transfer Yuriy Boyko, the future godfather of all the further gas schemes in Ukraine, to the position of Naftogaz's head.
 

Today Mr. Dubyna is at the head of Naftogaz with a mission to prevent the implementation of this company destruction scenario.
 

In the middle 2007, Mr. Dubyna, being head of the Dzerzhysnky metallurgical complex, was indignant over the actions of UkrGazEnergo, which consisted in increasing the gas prices without prior notification and “being practically backdated”.
 

The current appointment of Oleh Dubyna to Naftogaz was not supposed to meet with the resistance of Mr. Yushchenko, who is on very intimate terms with Serhiy Taruta, another shareholder of the Industrial Union of Donbass. The latter, together with Mr. Dubyna, welcomed President Yushchenko during his official visit to the Alchevsky metallurgical complex one month ago.

 

In the meantime, both Yulia Tymoshenko and Vitaliy Haiduk, who lobbied his present position of Naftogas head, do not conceal Mr. Dubyna's role in the modern history of Ukraine: being a ‘cudgel' (Ukrainian ‘dubyna') for RosUkrEnergo.
 
Serhiy Buryak
A once popular thesis that if the rich are admitted to the authorities, they will never steal has been completely refuted right after Leonid Chernovetskyi became the mayor of Kyiv.
 

But this is how the only explanation to Mrs. Tymoshenko's decision sounds: in compliance with this decision the legal millionaires Serhiy Buryak and Valeriy Khoroshkovsky have been appointed to the management of the State Tax Administration of Ukraine and the State Custom Service of Ukraine.
 

Though, apart from this one, there is yet another factor: it was of great importance to Mrs. Tymoshenko to show that people, who had voted for her, now have a return in the form of certain appointments to the ‘golden' offices in the government.
 

So, Serhiy Buryak is the son of the last State Bank of the Ukrainian SSR head Vasyl Buryak, who is deeply respected in financial circles and considered to be a figure of Vadym Hetman's level.
 

And again, by a twist of fate, it was Buryak's father, who, as a principal banker of the Ukrainian SSR, signed protocols, in compliance with which it is now impossible to file claims to Russia on the devalued deposits to the Oshchadbank (Savings Bank) of the USSR.
 

Serhiy and his younger brother Oleksandr, in accordance with the BrokBusinessBank last year's report, are the chief shareholders of the afore-mentioned financial establishment.
 

The elder brother possesses 44.7% of the statutory capital, whereas the younger possesses 43.3%. They both are the richest deputies according to the declared income scale. Serhiy declared UAH 521 million, Oleksandr – UAH 525 million.

In his 25 years the elder Buryak used to run BrokBusinessBank, which has a very simple explanation: this financial establishment was founded in place of Orendcoopbank in 1991, to which the father of the young bankers put his hand.
 

Today the Buryak bank is developing strategic partnership with the Ukravto Corporation, owned by Tariel Vasadze. According to some sources, the bank owns a minority shareholding in this corporation. Among the bank shareholders in 2005 there was also a chemical giant Styrol, situated in Horlivka.
 

In 2001-2002 Buryak brothers made closer acquaintance with Viktor Yushchenko. Mr. Yushchenko's brother, Petro Andriyovych, also interceded for the brothers.
 

Moreover, Serhiy Buryak is Viktor Yushchenko's godfather. It turns out that the future President together with another famous person, well-known in the Kyiv circles – Oksana Hunt, the owner of Sanahunt luxury fashion brand store, was a godparent to the banker's child.
 

Finally, before the parliamentary election of 2002, the younger Buryak brother appeared in the Our Ukraine party list and by a strange coincidence the bloc's fund increased by USD 1.5 million.
 

The elder Serhiy, who back in that time stood for the election in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, interceded for his brother. Our Ukraine considered this to be Buryak brothers' intention to join Viktor Yushchenko's faction in the future parliament.
 

However, these illusions faded after the first voting results had been announced. Oleksandr Buryak was excluded from the Our Ukraine faction since he went against the party line and supported the Volodymyr Lytvyn's candidacy for the Speakership. Serhiy Buryak was not on Viktor Yushchenko faction list at all, but also voted for Mr. Lytvyn.
 

In the rebellious year of 2004 the Buryak brothers did not excel in anything special: for instance, both brothers supported Viktor Medvedchuk's political reform.
 

After the Orange Revolution the brothers joined the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc, in which they both were directly responsible for the Khmelnytskyi oblast headquarters.
 

If there is truth to a certain rumor, the BYuT's fund received USD 5 million for each brother.
 

After Yulia Tymoshenko failed to become Prime Minister in 2006, the brothers resisted the temptation to join the anti-crisis coalition, which made Mrs. Tymoshenko to hold them in high esteem. She even paid a special visit to the National Bank council meeting in order to defend the elder Buryak's positions.
 

However, the recent appointment of the head of the State Tax Administration of Ukraine looks somewhat unfair towards Tariel Vasadze, who failed to become a Minister of Transport, most likely because of being unprepared to “completely give up the business to the country's benefit”.
 

One would need to be absolutely naïve to believe that Mr. Buryak is ready for this and will actually strike his favorite financial establishment, founded by common effort of the whole family from generation to generation, out of his life.
 

However, it is customary among banking circles to believe that Mr. Buryak's true purpose is to step into his father's shoes and become the head of the National Bank of Ukraine. And the State Tax Administration is just another step on his way to the cherished ambition.

 

Valeriy Khoroshkovsky
If the employment of Oleh Dubyna and Serhiy Buryak provides more or less adequate explanations, then Valeriy Khoroshkovsky is a real surprise for Yulia Tymoshenko.
 

Mr. Khoroshkovsky is the outstanding personality of today.
 

His habit of taking good care of his appearance has already become an object of derision aroused by business rivals. He pays due attention to the displays of his status. For instance, during working days Mr. Khoroshkovsky drives the enhanced 6.25 m Maybach. During the weekend he drives cherry-colored Bentley sports car. Both cars have the same snazzy numbers, which only differ in one letter.

 

Maybe it is right now that Mr. Khoroshkovsky has got the chance to break stereotypes, assigned to him in the course of the last years.
 

And, at first glance, taking all the absurdity into account, there is still some logic in the appointment of Mr. Khoroshkovsky to the State Custom Service of Ukraine.
 

Being an ambitious person, Mr. Khoroshkovsky stakes on Yulia Tymoshenko as a possible head of state in either 2010 or 2015.
 

Maybe, this will make him one of her closest team-mates in the future. It is known that during the last election Mr. Khoroshkovsky had regular meetings with Yulia Tymoshenko with a view, as he says, “to be well informed of all the political processes taking place in the country”.
 

Taking Yulia Tymoshenko's intention to renew the ‘Stop the Smuggling' program into account, Mr. Khoroshkovsky's appointment to the State Custom Service will pave the way for a) being constantly informed of the latest events; b) being in everyday touch with Mrs. Tymoshenko and c) regular being on TV in person.
 

It is quite obvious that such a partnership is mutually profitable.
 

First, Mrs. Tymoshenko will obtain the loyalty of the Inter TV channel despite the mixed-up story with the purchase of its assets. But Mr. Khoroshkovsky is its shareholder, though his rivals keep on asserting that he is not a sole proprietor.
 

Second, Mrs. Tymoshenko may hope that if the corruption at customs does not disappear once and for all, it will at least generate a structure, and the bribetakers' rates will appear to be beyond the strength of the minor smugglers.
 

Third, the fact that Mr. Khoroshkovsky is in the money, lets us hope that the minor abuse of power (USD 1,000-2,000) will finally be eradicated.
 

The information that Mr. Khoroshkovsky is a member of Viktor Pinchuk's team is some five years out of date.
 

The reasons, as always, lie in the money. Mr. Khoroshkovsky was forced to sell Ukrsotsbank at a lower price. He sold the bank that is now worth USD 3 billion, to Leonid Kuchma's son-in-law for USD 80-100 million.
 

Today Mr. Khoroshkovsky is actually the third figure in a triangle with Vitaliy Hayduk and Yulia Tymoshenko.
 

It was Mr. Hayduk one year ago who brought Mr. Khoroshkovsky to Viktor Yushchenko to take the office of the first deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. And when Mr. Hayduk refused to be a tool in Viktor Baloha's hands, they left together.
 

That is why, Mr. Khoroshkovsky can be considered as another proof of closer relationships established between Yulia Tymoshenko and the owners of the Industrial Union of Donbass.
 

However, besides Mr. Hayduk, Mr. Khoroshkovsky can be useful for Mrs. Tymoshenko as a guarantor in the relationships with another influential figure, a Russian metallurgical billionaire of ‘Eurasia Group' Aleksandr Abramov, who once staked on Viktor Yushchenko back in 2004, but only got a headache and no benefit at all.
 

It seems that Mr. Khoroshkovsky himself does not consider the position of a chief customs official to be the top of his career. Once in 2002, having become a frontman in the Team of Winter Generation (Komanda Ozimogo Pokolinnja), he said that in 2004 he would reach the age which allowed him to run for the Presidency.
 

It is obvious that this card will be played by some other people during the next decade. But still, everybody is always free to dream of becoming a real oligarch.

Serhiy Leshchenko, UP

27.03.08. Police officers found guilty in death of journalist Georgy Gongadze

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/world/europe/16Ukraine.html?ref=world
 
16 March 2008

Kyiv -- A Ukrainian court convicted three former police officers on Saturday of killing an investigative journalist whose unsolved slaying nearly eight years ago became a rallying cry of the Orange Revolution that eventually ousted the government.

The journalist, Georgy Gongadze, who crusaded against official corruption, was killed and his beheaded body was discovered in a forest outside Kyiv. His head was never found.

One of the former officers, Mykola Protasov, was sentenced to 13 years in jail. The other two, Valeriy Kostenko and Oleksandr Popovych, each received 12-year sentences.

IInvestigations have not identified those who ordered the killing.

Mr. Gongadze's wife and her two children received political asylum in the United States and have lived there since 2001.

Many Ukrainians have looked upon the Gongadze case as a test for the government of pro-Western President Viktor A. Yushchenko, who swept to power in the Orange Revolution in 2004.

Mr. Yushchenko has come under harsh criticism from human rights groups for failing to solve the crime.

Mr. Gongadze's killing set off months of protests in 2000 and 2001 after Mykola Melnychenko, a former bodyguard of President Leonid D. Kuchma, released tapes on which a voice resembling Mr. Kuchma's is heard conspiring with others against the journalist.

Lt. Gen. Oleksey Pukach, former chief of the Interior Ministry's surveillance department, where the three defendants all served, is also wanted in the murder and is being sought on an international warrant.

In September 2000, Mr. Gongadze got into what he thought was a taxi, and was then joined by three others and driven outside Kyiv, according to the defendants. He was beaten and strangled, his body doused with gasoline and burned. Experts said he was dead before the was decapitation.

29.03.08. Ukrainsk hæder til tidligere MF'er

"Liberalt overblik", marts 2008:

"Ukrainsk hæder. Tidligere MF for Venstre, Hanne Severinsen,
har modtaget "order of merit of II degree" af ukraines president victor jutchenko. ordenen er givet for hendes mangeårige indsats, hvor hun som europarådets rapporteur i 12 år har fulgt udviklingen i ukraine tæt - herunder som valgobservatør. i januar var der en personlig tak fra premierminister julia tymoshenko, der har bedt hende fortsætte som rådgiver. hanne severinsen, der i 2007 ikke genopstillede efter 23 år i folketinget, er også udnævnt til æresmedlem af europarådets parlamentariske forsamling, som hun var medlem af i 17 år."

03.04.08. NATO: Ukraine vil få MAP-status snarest

Ukraine fik ikke den ønskede MAP-status i NATO, som er en slags handlingsplan for lande, der vil træde ind i alliancen. 

Samtidig med det besluttede NATO-medlemslandenes ledere at indlede intensive politiske konsultationer med Ukraine og Georgien på politisk topplan med henblik på at løse de problemer, som står i vejen for en beslutning om at gå over til MAP (membership action plan).

NATOs generalsekretær Jaap de Hoop Scheffer sagde på en pressekonference i Bukharest i tirsdags, at NATO har besluttet, at Ukraine og Georgien vil blive medlemmer af  alliancen, oplyser "Interfaks-Ukraine".

"Begge lande har gjort en stor indsats for at blive medlemmer af NATO", sagde NATOs generalsekretær Jaap de Hoop Scheffer sagde på en pressekonference i Bukharest i tirsdags.

"Vi hilser alle demokratiske reformer velkommen og hylder det demokratiske valg, som finder sted i Georgien i maj. Og et medlemskab af NATO bliver den næste fase. I dag understreger vi, at vi er faste i vores støtte til disse to staters ansøgninger om NATO-medlemskab", understegede han.

"Ukraine har ikke fået en invitation til en handlingsplan for et NATO-medlemskab. Samtidig med det har stats-og regeringscheferne truffet beslutning om at indlede intensive politiske konsultationer med Ukraine og Georigen på topplan med henblik på at løse problemer som står i vejen for overgangen til en implementering af MAP", oplyste NATOs generalsekretær.

"Det er også besluttet at pålægge udenrigsministrene at komme med den første vurdering af det opnåede fremskridt under mødet i december 2008", sagde Scheffer.

"Vi er allerede på vej mod en intensiv dialog, og det er vejen til et medlemskab... NATO er enig i at vedtage en beslutning om at lade Ukraine og Georgien træde ind i den nærmeste fremtid", sagde generalsekretæren.

Samtidig oplyser Associated Press, at de Hoop Scheffer påpegede, at alliancen er parat til engang at optage Ukraine og Georgien som sine medlemmer. Men Frankrig og Tyskland blokerede USAs bestræbelser på at indlede den formelle del af denne proces, idet de mente, at dette ville skade det i forvejen anspændte forhold til Rusland. UP.

 

 

12.04.08. PACE Monitor Hanne Severinsen becomes Yulia Tymoshenko's adviser

 

11.04.2008 | 15:37 | Ukrinform

Ex-rapporteur on Ukraine for the Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Hanne Severinsen, has become a free-lance adviser to Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

This was announced in the April 9 resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers, which was placed on the Government website.

 

20.04.08. Tre politifolk dømt for Gongadze-mordet, men sagen er ikke slut

Otte år efter drabet på den ukrainske journalist har en appelret i Kijiv afsagt fængselsstraffe i sagen, men bagmændene er på fri fod

 Af Henrik Døcker

 Journalister i de tidligere Jerntæppe-lande lever livet farligt, for de tidligere diktaturer dér har ofte kun et tyndt lag demokratisk fernis. Der skulle således gå otte år mellem det tidspunkt, hvor det hovedløse lig af den 31-årige ukrainske journalist Georgij Gongadze blev fundet i Tarastsjanskij- skoven uden for Kijiv og hans gerningsmænd blev dømt. Det skete ved appelretten i Kijiv den 15. marts i år og tre år efter at de tre politiofficerer, der blev fundet skyldige, var blevet anholdt.

 Politiobersterne Valerij Kostenko og Mikola Protasov idømtes hhv.12 års og 13 fængsel, mens politimajor Oleksandr Popovitj fik 12 års fængsel. De tilhørte alle det ukrainske indenrigsministeriums afdeling for overvågning og kriminel efterforskning. Popovitj førte den bil, Gongadze, chefredaktør for netavisen Ukrainskaja Pravda, blev bortført i den 16. september 2000. Sammen med de to andre politiofficerer og deres chef, politigeneral Aleksej Pukatj, kørte de ud til skoven, hvor Pukatj angiveligt skal have kvalt Gongadze med hans eget bælte, mens politifolkene holdt ham.

 Hvad der oprører mange ukrainske politikere i dag er, at Pokatj havde held til at flygte ud af landet i 2003. Forinden skal han have haft held til i 2002 at gøre det af med en anden ukrainsk journalist, Aleksej Podolskij, denne gang i Tjernihiv-regionen. To politifolk, der medvirkede ved dette drab, også tilføjet ved kvælning, idømtes sidste år fængselsstraffe på tre år. Der var en overgang kriminel efterforskning rettet mod Pokatj for at have destrueret vigtigt bevismateriale i sagen. Men en dommer  indstillede  del af sagen i 2004. Pukatj menes i dag at befinde sig i Israel. Han er internationalt efterlyst.

 De egentlige bagmænd, dem, der beordrede og politisk bar ansvaret for drabet på den oppositionelle journalist Gongadze, der havde berettet om magtmisbrug i den unge ukrainske republik, er altså stadig på fri fod. Ministerpræsident Julia Timosjenko kritiserer den måde, efterforskningen i sagen har fundet sted på. ”Som sædvanlig har man fundet frem til dem, der befandt sig i det yderste led af kæden [af ansvarlige] i Gongadze-sagen, mens dem, der beordrede drabet…, herunder politikere og embedsmænd, bestemt ikke er blevet straffet”, siger hun.

 Socialistlederen Aleksandr Moroz, som aktivt deltog i de nationale protester mod den daværende præsident Leonid Kutjmas styre i kølvandet af Gongadze-drabet, har rettet mistanken mod sine gamle politiske kolleger i Organge-revolutionen. ”Det er højest mistænkeligt, at dem, der besluttede mordet, ikke kan findes”, siger han. Nogle hemmelige båndoptagelser af samtaler med Kutjma blev i 2001 smuglet ud af Ukraine af en tidligere vagtmand, optagelser som i højeste grad kastede mistanke om medansvar for drabet på Kutjma selv. Dette medvirkede til, at der opstod bevægelser som ”Ukraine uden Kutjma”og ”Vågn op Ukraine” foruden for Orange-revolutionen.

 Gongadzes enke, Miroslava, så sig på grund af  trusler mod hende nødsaget til at flygte ud af Ukraine og søge asyl i USA, idet hun også på forskellig vis blev groft chikaneret af ukrainske myndigheder. Hun vandt endog en sag mod staten Ukraine, rejst for Den Europæiske Menneskerettighedsdomstol i Strasbourg, som pålagde Ukraine at yde hende en godtgørelse for den ydmygende og umenneskelige behandling, hun havde været udsat for.

 

20.04.08. Menneskerettigheder: Ukraine dømt i to sager i Strasbourg

UBERETTIGEDE FORHINDRINGER FOR UKRAINSK NATURVÆRNSFORENING

Fire ukrainere, der ville oprette en naturværnsforening måtte helt til Strasbourg-domstolen for at få gennemtrumfet deres ret til det.  Den ukrainske hovedstad Kijivs særlige justitsdepartement havde afslået at give tilladelse til foreningen, men det krænkede efter denne domstols opfattelse foreningefriheden som knæsat i den europæiske menneskerettighedskonventions art. 11, hvorfor der tilkendtes de fire en godtgørelse på 1500 euro (10.750 kr.) for tort.

 De fire ukrainere Sergej Petrovitj Koretskij (Koretskyj), Andrej Vasiljovitj Tolotjko, Andrej Mykolajovitj Gorbal og Oleksij Grygorovitj, anmodede i 2000 de ukrainske myndigheder om registrering af Borgerkomiteen for Bevaring af de oprindelige naturområder i Berezniakij. Men Kijivs bystyre gav afslag, fordi foreningens vedtægter ikke var udfærdiget i overensstemmelse med gældende lov. Ukrainske domstole ville ikke behandle sagen, eftersom de fandt det lovligt at afslå registrering.

 Den Europæiske Menneskerettighedsdomstol påpegede, at hverken den ukrainske regering eller de lokale domstole havde givet tvingende grunde til at begrænse en forenings ret til at uddele propagandamateriale eller at lobby’e  myndigheder. Det viste sig, at den ukrainske lov om borgernes foreningsfrihed var alt for vag og i realiteten gav myndighederne en vid ret til at skønne over hvorvidt denne og hin forening var berettiget til registrering.

 Der var intet odiøst i at foreningen havde forudset at danne afdelinger under sig i andre ukrainske byer eller områder. Der var intet presserende socialt behov for at forbyde sammenslutningen.

 

KIRKESAMFUND I UKRAINE MÅTTE HELT TIL STRASBOURG FOR AT FÅ SIN KIRKE

Et græsk-katolsk kirke i den ukrainske landsby Sosulivka har måttet mobilisere Den Europæiske Menneskerettighedsdomstol for at få gennemtrumfet sin ret til ind imellem at benytte det ortodokse kirkesamfunds kirke i byen, til trods for at regionen Ternopil havde givet dem ret hertil. Det var en krænkelse af den europæiske menneskerettighedskonventions art. 6, eftersom det græsk-katolske kirkesamfund ikke kunne gå til ukrainske domstole og få retten gennemtrumfet.

 Græsk-katolikkerne underskrev en aftale om brug af kirken med  distriktsforvaltningen i Tjortkiv-distriktet i juli 1997, men den ortodokse kirke afslog alligevel det kirkesamfund at bruge kirken. Det hjalp ikke græsk-katolikkerne, at de gik til de ukrainske domstole, idet disse fandt, at de ikke havde jurisdiktion i sagen. Efter Strasbourg-stolens opfattelse indebar dette reelt retsnægtelse eller sagt på en anden måde: retten til domstolsprøvelse. Det græsk-katolske kirkesamfund tilkendtes en godtgørelse for tort på 1500 euro (11.250kr.) .

 

16.05.08. Yushchenko, Tymoshenko clash over privatization

 

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373010
April 28, 2008

Pavel Korduban

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have demonstrated that they would not stop short of open confrontation when big property is at stake. Yushchenko cancelled Tymoshenko’s orders to replace the head of the privatization body, the State Property Fund (FDM), and to privatize one of the last big factories still remaining in state ownership, the Odessa Portside Plant (OPZ). Tymoshenko, with the courts on her side, disobeyed and instructed her subordinates, perhaps for the first time ever, to ignore Yushchenko’s orders. Yushchenko sent his guards to protect the FDM from Tymoshenko’s team, and confrontation between the Presidential Guard and police was barely avoided.

Yushchenko opposes Tymoshenko’s efforts to privatize big industry assets in 2008. Tymoshenko makes no secret of her plan to spend money raised from privatization on compensations to those Ukrainians who lost their savings in the defunct Soviet state savings bank and on other social programs. Yushchenko says that Tymoshenko’s plan is tantamount to squandering national wealth. His team suspects that Tymoshenko wants to use privatization proceedings to buy popular support for the 2010 presidential election.

The Tymoshenko cabinet approved a privatization plan for 2008 in February. It provides for raising some $1.8 billion by privatizing assets in electricity companies, the Ukrtelekom fixed-lines operator, the Turboatom manufacturer of equipment for nuclear plants, and OPZ, which is the key producer of ammonia and carbamide. OPZ is probably the most attractive of those assets. Tymoshenko plans to sell it for over $500 million. From February to April 2008, Yushchenko issued several decrees suspending Tymoshenko’s privatization orders, including OPZ privatization.

Tymoshenko tried to replace FDM head Valentyna Semenyuk, who has survived several cabinets from 2005 to 2008 in this position. She believes that Semenyuk has been torpedoing her privatization efforts on orders from Yushchenko. On February 6 Tymoshenko suspended Semenyuk and appointed Andry Portnov, a member of her party, to replace her. However, Yushchenko decreed on February 7 to suspend Semenyuk’s dismissal and requested the Constitutional Court (KS) to check the legality of Tymoshenko’s order. He recalled that in 2007 he had decreed that the FDM was not part of the executive, so Tymoshenko could not replace its head.

Yushchenko lost to Tymoshenko in the KS, which threw out his appeal on April 17; but Yushchenko appealed again on the same day. Tymoshenko argued that Yushchenko could not appeal on the same matter twice, and she reportedly decided to replace Semenyuk by force. Yushchenko warned her against this at his press conference on April 24. He said that only parliament could replace Semenyuk.

Yushchenko slammed Tymoshenko’s privatization policy. “What’s happening to privatization in Ukraine now reminds me of a seasonal sale at a Kyiv supermarket,” he said, “but in our case national security is at stake.” He warned against “sweet populism.” He said that he was not against OPZ privatization but that OPZ should be privatized without its transshipment facility, which was also used by other companies in the region. Therefore, according to Yushchenko, it was of strategic importance for Ukraine.

On April 23 Yushchenko ruled to replace the Interior Ministry’s security guards at the FDM with the Presidential Guard in order to prevent the FDM’s takeover by force. The Interior Ministry reportedly had not been warned of that decision so that its security could offer resistance; but common sense prevailed. The FDM passed under Yushchenko’s armed control without violence. When a district court in Kyiv confirmed Semenyuk’s suspension on April 24 and Tymoshenko arrived at the FDM on April 25 personally to install Portnov in Semenyuk’s place, Semenyuk, protected by Yushchenko’s guards, did not move.

The same court ruled to continue OPZ privatization, but on April 25 Yushchenko decreed it suspended again. Tymoshenko instructed Portnov to disobey Yushchenko’s decrees and to carry on with OPZ privatization. This time the Prosecutor-General’s Office intervened, canceling Semenyuk’s suspension by Tymoshenko. In response, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc threatened to launch a no-confidence motion against Prosecutor-General Oleksandr Medvedko in parliament.

First Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov, speaking in a TV interview, accused Yushchenko of pursuing “private interests” in privatization. Turchynov did not specify what those interests were. Zerkalo Nedeli quoted “rumors” suggesting that OPZ was contested by the Ukrainian tycoons Kostyantyn Zhevaho and Ihor Kolomoysky. Zhevaho is a member of Tymoshenko’s party, while Kolomoysky pledged in a recent interview that he would back Yushchenko in a presidential election.

Speaking at a talk-show on Inter TV, Semenyuk said that she would not go until parliament replaced her. Semenyuk knows that parliament will not do that any time soon, as the biggest caucus in it, the opposition Party of Regions, will hardly back Tymoshenko in her dispute with Yushchenko. Semenyuk accused Tymoshenko of trying to sell OPZ “for a song” in order to “pay the oligarchs” for political support. Semenyuk also said that OPZ should not be privatized at a time when “world prices and the Ukrainian stock market are falling” (Ukrainska Pravda, April 2, 26; UT1 TV, April 24; Channel 5, Inter TV, April 25; Zerkalo Nedeli, April 26).

 

 

16.05.08. Ukrainian politics stands on the brink, again

06-May-2008
Jane's Foreign Report

Key Points

Deteriorating relations between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko over a constitutional realignment have placed the future of Ukraine's Orange coalition government in doubt.

As well as presenting the risk that Ukraine could again be beset by political infighting and paralysis, the collapse of the government is also likely to presage a move towards a parliamentary constitution, limiting the powers of the president.

Internal political and constitutional crises will negatively affect Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU.

The popular revolutions that have arisen in post-Soviet states in recent years held great promise for states beset by corruption, economic mismanagement and failing democracy. Yet they have experienced a mixed bag of success.

Despite early promise and undoubted progress in certain areas, the forces behind Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution have faced a series of crises in recent months, culminating in simmering domestic protest and the imposition of a state of emergency in November 2007. Meanwhile Kyrgyzstan's 2005 Tulip 'revolution' quickly began to more closely resemble a coup that simply swapped one ruling autocratic elite for another.

But perhaps the most chaotically divisive of them all has been Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution. The bifurcation of political interests, both within the Orange Revolutionary powers and the wider political environment, has led to near continual infighting, deep partisan divisions and prolonged political paralysis.

Hopes had been raised that a unified government had been formed with the reformation of an Orange coalition following the September 2007 parliamentary elections. However, tensions between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko threatened to boil over on 25 April when the prime minister ordered her government to ignore presidential decrees, leaving the future survival of the government in doubt and Ukraine looking over the precipice into another political morass.

Constitutional chaos

The current source of antagonism regards attempts to re-align the constitution and disagreement over whether this should lead to the government being led by the president or parliament. Following the Orange Revolution, constitutional reforms were agreed during round-table discussions brokered by the EU. Yushchenko agreed that these reforms would go into effect in 2006, with the entire parliament apart from the Tymoshenko Bloc voting in favour of the compromise. However, the 2006 semi-parliamentary constitution this created has never been satisfactory to President Yushchenko, who has sought to re-gain lost presidential powers, most recently through the creation of a parliamentary commission in December 2007 to move Ukraine back to a semi-presidential system. Yet these attempts are being thwarted by two significant problems. First, only one out of the five parties represented in parliament supports the president's strategy. The opposition Party of Regions is boycotting the commission and the Tymoshenko Bloc is merely attending but not participating in its deliberations. Second, in April the constitutional court ruled that reforms have to be first adopted by parliament before they can go to a referendum.

This disagreement has opened up barely contained fissures in the ruling coalition between the Tymoshenko Bloc and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine-People's Self Defence Union. The two parties maintain a razor thin majority of just three seats in parliament, holding 228 of the 450 available seats. The president has long had ideological and personal difficulties in working with Tymoshenko, whose government he previously removed in September 2005.

In response, Tymoshenko has gone on the offensive, even supporting a de facto alliance of convenience with her arch enemy, the Party of Regions, in supporting a reduction in presidential powers. The two factions, who command a majority in parliament that can also draw on the support of two other parties, will initiate constitutional reforms in the current parliamentary session where they need a simple majority to adopt a new parliamentary constitution.

For the government, an alliance of convenience between the Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions is likely to split Our Ukraine-People's Self Defence Union into pro-Tymoshenko and pro-Yushchenko wings, putting the sustainability of the Orange coalition in jeopardy. The imposition of constitutional reform by Tymoshenko and the Party of Regions is also likely to lead to pre-term parliamentary (due in 2012) and presidential elections in 2009. In the presidential elections, Tymoshenko, with 30 to 40 per cent ratings in opinion polls, would be the most likely candidate to win, assuming she decided to run instead of retaining an enhanced prime minister's position.

Foreign and security policy

The political-constitutional crisis is now likely to last for much of the remaining year and will negatively affect Ukraine's drive to join NATO and deepen its co-operation with the EU. At NATO's April summit in Bucharest, despite strong support from the US, Kiev was not offered a Membership Action Plan (MAP) and had to make do with a promise that it would eventually join NATO, albeit with no formal timetable, and that its progress towards a MAP will be reviewed in December 2008.

As Western diplomats have pointed out to Jane's , what 'progress' will exactly constitute remains both contentious and unclear. Western European states are putting forward very stringent criteria for progress towards a MAP for Ukraine and Georgia. Constitutional instability in Ukraine will provide additional arguments for Western Europe to continue to claim that the country is not ready for entry into a MAP. The German Ambassador to Ukraine has emphasised stability as a key marker of progress against which Ukraine will be judged.

Domestic instability in Ukraine will also give the EU grounds for not acceding to Kiev's main demands during negotiations for a new agreement to replace the 1997 to 2006 Partnership and Co-operation Agreement. This 'enhanced agreement' is likely to give Ukraine a higher status than that accorded under the 2005-2007 European Neighbourhood Policy. Brussels remains adamant that it cannot recognise Ukraine's membership aspirations, as Kiev demands.

FORECAST

The Orange coalition is likely to become increasingly fractured as Tymoshenko seeks a constitutional realignment favouring parliament. This is likely to lead to the sidelining of President Yushchenko whose aspirations for re-election will face a serious challenge. Although these developments do not bode well for Ukraine's political stability and hopes of Western integration over the coming year, in the longer term, such constitutional reform could begin to help solve the fundamental weaknesses at the heart of Ukrainian politics and perhaps allow the development of more mature institutions.

21.05.08. Tymoshenko og Jusjtjenko konkurrerer om magten i Kiev (eng.)

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/oped/28967/
 
May 15 2008
Zenon Zawada, Kyiv Post Chief Editor
 

Unless a last-minute political breakthrough is reached by Ukraine’s pro-Western forces, led by the Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, they are on the cusp of suffering a humiliating defeat in the May 25 election for Kyiv’s mayor.

[ ... ]

An unprecedented event happened today, when the parliamentary majority, responsible for the Ukrainian parliament's work, began blocking it, a visibly stunned Yushchenko said afterwards.

What will be more embarrassing is oncoming mayoral election debacle. It was the Tymoshenko-led pro-Western forces themselves which voted to call the pre-term mayoral election in the first place, in order to unseat Leonid Chernovetskiy, who stands accused, but not convicted, of rampant corruption during his two years as Kyiv's mayor.

Regardless, Chernovetskiy is on his way to victory, and the lack of unity among Ukraine's pro-Western forces is to blame. President Viktor Yushchenko is engaged in an all-out war with Tymoshenko, who is threatening their second divorce.

[ ... ]

Three basic conclusions can already be drawn.


1. More than three years after the Orange Revolution, Ukraine's pro­Western forces have failed to convince a definitive majority of Ukrainians they offer a better vision for the nation. Chernovetskiy, the ultimate pragmatist with few political principles, has mustered far more support among Kyiv residents than any of the other pro­Western candidates competing. Meanwhile, polls reveal the Russian­oriented Party of the Regions of Ukraine, and Viktor Yanukovych, remain just as popular as the Tymoshenko Bloc.

2. The mayoral election campaign has further damaged the Orange forces' credibility. In supporting Chernovetskiy, a politician reviled by Kyiv's intellectuals and middle class, by threatening to veto a second round, Yushchenko has once again demonstrated, barring any breakthroughs, that he is more interested in keeping power and manipulating the levers of government than unseating an incumbent widely accused of corruption, particularly in allegedly misappropriating government funds and improperly re­distributing thousands of hectares of land, allegedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars, as political tribute. Meanwhile, Tymoshenko could suffer her first big defeat that threatens to be the first major blow to her popularity.

3. Ukraine's pro­Western forces face their biggest crisis yet. Revealing their hubris in hastily launching pre­term elections, their failure will only reinforce Chernovetskiy's grip on the Kyiv City Administration and bolster his authority. While that may serve Yushchenko's short­term goals as president, it doesn't help his Our Ukraine­People's Self­Defense bloc, which is likely to collapse after he likely loses the presidential election of 2010. In fact, both of Ukraine's leading pro­Western forces, the Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine­People's Self­Defense blocs, hinge entirely on their leaders ¨C Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. Either bloc would disintegrate if either personality failed in politics.

How tragic it is that two forces so dependent on each other are causing each other¡'s demise.

7And the Russians didn't even need to lift a finger!

21.05.08. Yushchenko will be marginalized by constitutional and political instability in Ukraine

May 15, 2008

Taras Kuzio

e-POSHTA May 20, 2008 / e-POSHTA 20 travnia 2008

The three holiday breaks (Easter, May Day and World War II Victory Day) gave only a short respite before the two main figures in Ukrainian politics, President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, resumed their fight to the bitter end. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are ostensibly members of the same democratic (i.e. "Orange") coalition established after the September 2007 pre-term elections. The conflict within the "Orange" camp was evident on May 13, when the Tymoshenko bloc blockaded parliament to protest what it described as "sabotage" of government policies. It prevented the president from giving his annual address, which was unprecedented in Ukraine's 17 years of independence.

The center of the conflict is the head of the presidential secretariat Viktor Baloha, little known until the 2002 elections except in his home border region of Trans-Carpathia. The majority of Western embassies, a large share of Ukrainian politicians (even from Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defense [NU-NS] and the opposition Party of Regions), think tanks, journalists and the public are united in their view that Baloha's strident antagonism to Tymoshenko does more harm than good to the president and to the NU-NS, of which Baloha is honorary chairman. Most observers of Ukrainian politics cannot understand how the president can let his chief of staff make daily denunciations and demands to its government, without a moral or constitutional basis on which to do so. Yushchenko appears oblivious to the negative effect this has on his own and the NU-NS's ratings.

A May poll found that for the first time the hero of the Orange Revolution had higher negative approval ratings than positive. Only 13 percent trust Yushchenko, while 26.5 percent distrust him (the respective figures are 30 and 26 percent for Tymoshenko and 24 and 26 percent for Viktor Yanukovych). The same poll found that the Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) continues to have greater support (25 percent) than the Party of Regions (23 percent) with NU-NS support collapsing from 14 percent in the 2007 elections to 5.4 percent (See EDM March 20).

In a May 6 statement Baloha continued to lambaste the government's policies. The major bone of contention remains privatization, but the roles have been reversed since the 2005 Tymoshenko government.

As Yushchenko and Baloha repeatedly stress, they do not agree that a portion of the proceeds from privatization should continue going toward the repayment of lost or stolen Soviet bank savings, the first tranche of which was paid in January. Baloha complained that the costs from the privatization of the Odessa Port Terminal, which the president is repeatedly attempting to halt, should go toward economic growth and societal needs and not for a "one-off PR ploy" for Tymoshenko.

The repayment of Soviet era savings lost in Russia's nationalization of Soviet banking assets in 1991 and Ukraine's 1993 hyperinflation has become hostage to the January 2010 presidential elections. President Yushchenko is threatened by Tymoshenko's high ratings, one reason for which is the popularity she has gained from fulfilling her 2007 electoral pledge to repay the lost savings.

The repeated non-fulfillment of election promises has had a negative impact on both Yushchenko's and the NU-NS's ratings. Yushchenko's 2004 election program supported the government's repayment of savings. If elected, Yushchenko promised to "make the oligarchs really pay all their taxes. I am against a re-division of property, but oligarchs will be made to pay a real price for the enterprises that they have grabbed during privatization (prykhvatizatsiya grab-ization) practically for nothing and the billions of hryvni from this will go toward repaying the stolen savings of citizens."

The continuing attacks by Yushchenko and Baloha on Tymoshenko have also had four important ramifications.

First, they have continued to demonstrate that Yushchenko does not comply with the rule of law. This was exemplified by his legally questionable April 2, 2007, decree disbanding parliament. A wide variety of commentaries have pointed to the lack of constitutionality for the majority of the president's interferences in the work of Tymoshenko's government. The president, let alone a state bureaucrat who heads his secretariat, has no legal right, for example, to intervene in economic affairs and privatization. BYuT Deputy Mykola Tomenko wondered on what grounds the secretariat "teaches the Ukrainian people and government how to work."

Second, the attacks and rivalry have eroded the president's support to such an extent that nearly all commentators agree that Yushchenko cannot be elected to a second term. His ferociously anti-Tymoshenko stance immediately following her confirmation as prime minister on December 18 of last year lost Yushchenko the opportunity to align himself with her electoral prowess and popularity to win a second term as an Orange president while she would remain prime minister.

Third, the attacks have pushed Tymoshenko and BYuT beyond tolerating interference and unrelenting criticism on a greater scale than from even the opposition's shadow cabinet.

The situation came to a head in mid April in a week that witnessed an anti-Tymoshenko pamphlet distributed at a meeting between the president and governors, Tymoshenko's speech to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Yushchenko's two-hour diatribe against alleged corruption in the Tymoshenko government, threats by the presidential secretariat to launch criminal proceedings against the government and a harsh BYuT parliamentary response.

The outcome was again not to the president's advantage. Ukraine's most pro-presidential political force, the BYuT, which was the only faction to vote against constitutional reforms on December 8, 2004, is today in the vanguard in drawing up a parliamentary constitution that severely reduces presidential powers. The Party of Regions, which feared a Tymoshenko victory under the 2006 constitution, cannot believe what luck it now has in finding in the BYuT an unlikely ally in parliament. Yushchenko's Constitutional Council, which he hoped would bring in constitutional reforms that would give him back powers, is for all purposes dead in the water.

Finally, Yushchenko's unwillingness to abide by the 2006 constitution that he himself negotiated in December 2004 has led to two near-violent incidents. In May 2007 and April 2008 the president illegally ordered the presidential guard to take control of the offices of the prosecutor-general and the State Property Fund. Government buildings are supposed to be protected by Interior Ministry's Special Forces, not the presidential guard.

The two months leading to the summer recess are likely to determine Yushchenko's fate. If a new constitutional process is set in motion in parliament, next year will see pre-term parliamentary and presidential elections, in which Yushchenko is likely to be eclipsed from Ukrainian politics (Ukrayinska Pravda, April 24-May 7, www.president.gov.ua May 5, byut.com.ua, April 14, Viktor Yushchenko, Viriu v Ukrayinu, 2004). 

29.05.08. 'Orange' allies fight over economic policy

May 20 2008

EVENT: The government decided yesterday to postpone indefinitely privatizing Odessa Portside Plant until divisions within the coalition over economic policy are resolved.

SIGNIFICANCE: Divisions within the coalition, after a two-month blockade of parliament by the opposition, are undermining the effectiveness of the government's economic reforms and struggle against corruption.

ANALYSIS: The 2004 'Orange Revolution' was fuelled by popular anger at the ruling elite's abuse of office under former President Leonid Kuchma. Battling corruption, separating business and politics, and reforming and upholding the rule of law are the three central policies Ukrainian citizens expect of Viktor Yushchenko's presidency, but there has been little progress in all three.

Three factors bedevil separating business and politics, namely:

the big business presence within each group in the Orange coalition;

different approaches from big business to their relationship with politics; and

divisions within the coalition over how to deal with Kuchma-era abuses.

Business backers. Most 'oligarchs' backed both sides in the 2004 presidential election, Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych -- although Rinat Akhmetov plumped for Yanukovych. The Orange parties would not have succeeded without the financial, media and networking resources provided by their big business backers. Petro Poroshenko and Andrei Derkach made their two television channels available to Yushchenko.

Former Kuchma allies have maintained positions of power under Yushchenko. Since 2004, the Industrial Union of Donbas (ISD) and the Dnipropetrovsk-based Pryvat group have been openly aligned with the prime minister's Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine (NU), respectively (see UKRAINE: Pryvat-Yushchenko tie spoils anti-graft aim - August 28, 2007).

Some ISD leaders, notably Serhii Taruta and Vitalii Hayduk, have joined such state and government institutions as the National Security and Defence Council, the presidential secretariat and the second Tymoshenko cabinet, but have not run for parliament.
 

Other businessmen have limited their connection to providing financial, advisory and other resources to a political party or the government, including Ihor Kolomoisky of Pryvat, who funded the NU 2006 and 2007 election campaigns, and RosUkrEnergo (RUE) co-owner Dmitro Firtash, who has financed both Yushchenko and Yanukovych's Party of Regions.

By contrast, Akhmetov has been a Regions parliamentary deputy since 2006.

Approaches to politics. Those of Ukraine's oligarchs who are most opposed to Tymoshenko's policies, such as Akhmetov and former Naftohaz Ukrainy CEO Yuriy Boiko, see Regions as defending them from 'political repression', and hence opted to start running for election after the Orange Revolution.

Other oligarchs have either stayed out of parliament, resigned or failed to get elected. Interpipe CEO Viktor Pinchuk and TasGroup CEO Serhiy Tyhipko have withdrawn from politics and did not run for parliament last time. However, in March, Tyhipko became joint head (with Tymoshenko) of the government's Council of Investors. The Dnipropetrovsk clan's Labour Party has disintegrated; in April, its remnants merged with Regions. The former Kiev clan's Social Democratic United Party failed to enter parliament in 2006 and did not run in 2007.

Orange divisions. On the Orange side, there have been persistent and deep divisions between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko over post-Kuchma policy:

During the short-lived 2005 Tymoshenko government, they clashed over reprivatisation, immunity for Kuchma and whether to bring criminal charges against senior officials and the organisers of the 2004 election fraud. Yushchenko opposed Boiko's arrest in July 2005, for abuse of office at Naftohaz in 2002-04. He criticised Tymoshenko for not being interested in privatisation and preferring wholesale reprivatisation, which he opposed. The single exception was Kryvorizhstal, which had been sold in July 2004 for 800 million dollars to two Ukrainian oligarchs, with foreign bids excluded. It was reprivatised in October 2005, in Ukraine's only transparent privatisation, to a foreign company offering 4.8 billion dollars.
 

Following Tymoshenko's removal from office in September 2005, Yushchenko signed a memorandum with Yanukovych, to secure Regions' backing for Yuriy Yekhanurov as prime minister. It included an amnesty for election fraud and immunity for local councillors.
 

Warm relations between Ukraine's business elite and the Yekhanurov government emerged in an October 2005 meeting, at which Yushchenko offered cooperative relations and an end to reprivatisations, in exchange for a vague promise from the oligarchs to separate business and politics, pay taxes and move economic activity out of the shadow economy and into the legal sphere. These agreements were reiterated at two subsequent presidential-business elite meetings in 2006 and 2007.

In 2004, Yushchenko's election campaign included the pledge to charge oligarchs a one-off surcharge (as an alternative to reprivatisation) to make up the difference between the knock-down prices of enterprises privatised under Kuchma, and the 'market' price, but this was later forgotten. The surcharge was to have been used to pay back depositors in the Savings Bank (Oshadbank) who lost their savings in the 1993 hyperinflation, a policy that he now opposes. Georgia successfully introduced an oligarch surcharge policy following the'Rose Revolution'.

Since the 2007 elections, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have continued to clash over business issues:

Privatisation. The government's privatisation programme for 2008 (see UKRAINE: Privatisation promises to be large scale - March 17, 2008) includes 400 state-owned enterprises and is to bring 8.6 billion hryvnia (1.8 billion dollars) in budget revenue. Some was to be used to begin repaying the Oshadbank depositors, the first tranche being paid in January. In a reversal of 2005, Yushchenko now blocks Tymoshenko's privatisation programme. He uses socialist language to declare sectors of the economy central to 'national security' and so excluded from privatisation. The privatisation programme has been suspended by presidential decree, and he has prevented Tymoshenko from replacing the Socialist head of the State Property Fund.

Savings. Privatisation has become hostage to the use of privatisation receipts to repay Oshadbank savers, a policy that has boosted Tymoshenko's popularity. Yushchenko's national security arguments are a pretext -- in 2007, Yushchenko supported privatising the Odessa Portside Plant (OPP), but his aim now is to stop privatisation revenues going into the budget. OPP was to have been privatised this week, but this was postponed after Yushchenko issued instructions to the prosecutorgeneral and Security Service to launch criminal proceedings against Tymoshenko government officials.

Gas. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have been at odds since 2005 over corruption in the energy sector. Tymoshenko has opposed the use of non-transparent intermediaries, such as RUE, while Yushchenko supported them during the 2005-06 Yekhanurov government and in the recent gas negotiations with Russia.

Energy exploration. The government recently cancelled an exploration licence that was awarded last October to Houstonbased Vanco in October 2007 by the outgoing Yanukovych government. Vanco has a small annual turnover of 7.5 million dollars, and unexpectedly beat the larger Shell-ExxonMobil joint bid. Tymoshenko has accused Yushchenko of betraying national interests in agreeing to the Vanco contract, exercising his presidential prerogative over energy and Ukraine's continental shelf. Akhmetov's Donbas Fuel-Energy Company is a Vanco partner.

CONCLUSION: The central demand of the Orange Revolution for the separation of business from politics has not been pursued by the Yushchenko administration. Different attitudes to this issue and macroeconomic policy generally are again dividing and' undermining the Orange coalition, and may lead to a second Tymoshenko exit from government and her irreversible break with Yushchenko.

04.06.08. Kiev [Kyiv] and Moscow in dispute over naval port

"There's one," says Gennady Basov, pointing to a Russian flag on a car aerial in the Black Sea naval port of Sevastopol. "There's another, and another."

It could be a children's game. But Mr Basov is 37 and has an entirely adult agenda – he is a pro-Russia activist promoting a Russian sense of identity in a city that Moscow lost to Ukraine with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

He says: "Sevastopol really belongs to Russia, not Ukraine. Documents prove it."

To many Ukrainians, Mr Basov's comments are highly inflammatory. But in Sevastopol itself, with its large ethnic Russian population and historic ties with Moscow, these are mainstream views.

The city of 340,000 has become the latest focus of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Kiev this month banned Yuri Luzhkov, Moscow's mayor and a strong supporter of Russian claims to Sevastopol, over a speech he made in the city.

Moscow responded by prohibiting Yevhen Korniychuk, Ukraine's first deputy justice minister, from travelling to Russia after he proposed a ban on Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, for suggesting Ukraine was "not a proper country".

The war of words has escalated since Ukraine this year announced its bid for a Nato membership action plan, a formal step to joining the alliance. Nato rejected the application but has promised to reconsider later this year. Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's pro-west president, has pledged to keep banging on the door.

Moscow opposes Nato enlargement and is determined to stop Kiev's accession because of the deep links between Russia and Ukraine. It is flexing its muscles in the ex-Soviet Union by supporting Russia-oriented regions and populations in neighbouring states, notably in breakaway Abkhazia in Georgia.

With 60 per cent of Crimea's 2m population ethnic Russians, the entire region is of interest to Moscow. Ukraine has accused Russian politicians of interference, notably in relations between the ethnic Russian majority and the 250,000-strong Crimean Tartar minority, which is very loyal to Kiev.

But Sevastopol matters most as it is home to the Russian Black Sea fleet, which this month marked its 225th anniversary with rousing parades and rallies. Under the agreements that split the Soviet Union, the former Soviet Black Sea fleet was divided between Russia and Ukraine, with Moscow securing the lion's share and rights to remain in Sevastopol. In 1997, Kiev granted Moscow a 20-year lease on the base.

The Russian navy dominates the city, with scores of ships moored in its harbours and an imposing headquarters building on a promontory overlooking Sevastopol bay. Russian naval buildings are scattered across the city centre, including an officers' club and a museum. Unlike many provincial Russian and Ukrainian cities, central Sevastopol is in good trim, the white-washed public buildings standing proud against the blue waters and sky. Russian officers stride about in full uniform; off-duty, they drink in waterside bars.

Visiting Russian politicians gather large crowds. Even in their absence, Mr Basov and his local colleagues maintain the pressure with pro-Moscow rallies staged in the central square named after Admiral Pavel Nakhimov, a hero of the Crimean war.

Mr Luzhkov and other nationalist Russian politicians say bluntly that all Crimea, including Sevastopol, belongs to Moscow. They claim it was never historic Ukrainian territory but was included in Ukraine only in 1954, when Nikita Krushchev, the Soviet leader, transferred Crimea from the Russian republic inside the USSR to the Ukraine. In communist times, this made little difference but it meant that with Ukrainian independence in 1991, Crimea went to Kiev.

Mr Luzhkov's supporters further claim that Sevastopol itself was not included in Khrushchev's gift because, as a military city, it was ruled directly from Moscow, even after 1954. Kiev counters that Russia has acknowledged Ukraine's borders in treaties since 1991 and explicitly recognised Ukraine's ownership of Sevastopol, not least through the 1997 lease.

Mr Putin has not publicly questioned Crimea or Sevastopol's status. But he has said he wants the fleet to stay after 2017 and he has implicitly questioned Ukraine's sovereignty.

Mr Yushchenko, who generally keeps a low profile over Sevastopol, this month proposed a draft law on terminating the fleet agreement.

Mr Korniychuk, the banned Ukrainian official, says: "It's very sad that relations between Russia and Ukraine are deteriorating. We can settle the issues between us. But now may not be the right time to make these decisions."

28.06.08. Russian-Ukrainian relations reveal deeper problems

EURASIA DAILY MONITOR
Volume 5 , Issue 115 (June 17, 2008)

By Taras Kuzio

President Viktor Yushchenko's first meeting with newly elected Russian President Dmitry Medvedev failed to resolve the outstanding issues between Ukraine and Russia. Despite Yushchenko's optimism that all of these issueswould be resolved, "the negotiations taking everything into account becamevery heated."

These issues cannot be easily dealt with, because the growing range of problem areas between Ukraine and Russia, Russia's assertive nationalism and the divergent transition paths of both countries that began during Vladimir Putin's first and Leonid Kuchma's second terms in office and accelerated following the 2004 Orange Revolution.

Eleven areas bedevil Ukrainian-Russian relations showing a close interconnection between domestic and international affairs.

First, energy. Ukraine has absorbed Russian gas price increases from $50 to $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters over the last four years with a threat to double this price in 2009. Nevertheless, annual negotiations over gas contracts continue to be over-shadowed by anger and accusations. The energy sector continues to be very corrupt, and this factor reduces the ability of Ukraine's elites to act in unison toward Moscow. Ukraine has three strategic advanatages over Russia: pipelines carrying 80 percent of Russian gas to Europe, storage facilities and World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. The Yushchenko-Yulia Tymoshenko rivalry and corruption undermine Ukraine's leverages and leads to angry exchanges inside Ukraine and between Russia and Ukraine.

Second, CIS. The orange administration has continued and deepened Ukraine's lack of interest in CIS integration, including the Single Economic Space(SES). Yushchenko does not follow Kuchma's rhetorical lip service to the CISSES and CIS integration. Interest in the CIS is overshadowed by are orientation toward a Deep Free Trade Area with the EU. The Party of Regions proposes not CIS integration but "neutrality" as an alternative to NATO membership.

Third, Ukrainian exiles in Russia. High-level officials accused of abuse of office (Igor Bakaj, Ruslan Bodelan) or involvement in Yushchenko's poisoning (Volodymyr Satsiuk) continue to remain in exile in Russia. Russia has a longrecord of harboring fugitives sought by countries such as Georgia.

Fourth, Russian oppositionists unable to work freely in Russia are increasingly settling in Ukraine or working from it. Exiled Russian oligarch Boris Berezovskiy not only gave financial assistance to the Orange Revolution but also financed the transcribing of the Mykola Melnychenko tapes. Russians were convinced the Orange Revolution was part of a "Western conspiracy" and could never believe that Ukrainians were capable of undertaking a revolution without a "guiding hand."

Fifth, the nature of the two countries' relationship. The Russian-Ukrainian relationship has always been bedeviled by Russia's unwillingness to treat Ukraine (like Belarus) as a partner rather than a vassal. Russia's unwillingness to treat Kuchma, elected in 1994 on a "pro-Russian platform," with due respect turned him into an ardent supporter of NATO. Yushchenko's demand for a change in the Russian-Ukrainian relationship to one between two independent states is even more demanding than that proposed by Kuchma. As seen by Putin's comments made during the NATO-Russia Council at the Bucharest NATO summit, Russia is unable to treat Ukraine as a foreign, serious and coherent entity.

Sixth, borders. The 2003 territorial claim on the island of Tuzla showed to what degree border issues continue to remain unresolved. On June 3 the State Duma voted to seek the abrogation of the 1997 treaty if Ukraine got a NATO Membership Action Plan. The resolution followed Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov's Crimean visit when he re-opened the Crimean-Sevastopol issue.

Ukraine has always had a cross-party consensus on protecting its territorial integrity, and Russia's territorial demands merely push Ukraine toward NATO, whether under Kuchma or Yushchenko. Senior Party of Regions leader Andriy Kluyev warned, "Anti-Ukrainian statements by Russian politicians...are strategically very bad for the interests of both states," because they pit both peoples against each other and give ammunition to "anti-Russian forces in Ukraine."

Seventh, Black Sea Fleet. The Fleet pays a low rent of $100 million per annum, its personnel take part in anti-NATO and anti-American protests and the Fleet illegally occupies numerous buildings (lighthouses) and land that are commercially used. The lack of respect for Ukraine is evidenced in recent naval troop exercises conducted on Crimean land without offering prior notification to the Ukrainian authorities. Based on Russia's unwillingness to withdraw from Moldova and Georgia and Russian officials' statements, Ukraine's major concern is whether the Fleet will withdraw from Sevastopol in 2017.

Eighth, Church and language. During the Yushchenko-Medvedev meeting the Russian side raised the perennial issues of alleged "discrimination" against the Russian language in Ukraine and attempts at uniting the Ukrainian Autocephalous and Russian Orthodox Churches.

Ninth, NATO enlargement. Because of Russia's unreformed world view and historically unchanged attitude toward Ukraine, it is unable to discuss Ukraine's drive to join NATO rationally but only in emotional and hysterical terms, using words such as "treason." Such language was evident during Putin's speech to the NATO-Russia Council, where he challenged Ukraine's territorial integrity and right to exist.

Tenth, frustration. Russia has long been frustrated by its inability to influence domestic affairs in Ukraine. Attempts to use energy pressure have always failed, notably in January 2006, when the entire West backed Ukraine in the gas dispute. A February 2007 Ukrainian parliamentary vote to block privatization of the gas pipelines (i.e. transfer them to Russian or joint control) received 420 of 450 votes. Outside of Sevastopol Russian nationalist parties have never been able to establish Ukrainian bases of support.

Eleventh, history. Ukraine and Russia?s views of Soviet and pre-Soviet history radically changed under Kuchma, and this divergence has accelerated under Yushchenko. Whereas Ukraine has moved to a Ukrainian national historiography, Russia has maintained a Soviet Russophile interpretation of history. School textbooks in both countries give radically different perspectives on every aspect of Russian-Ukrainian history over the last two millennia.

Yushchenko's campaign to obtain domestic and international recognition of the 1933 artificial famine as an act of "genocide," as seen during his May 25 to 28 visit to Canada, has been heavily criticized by Russia's President,Foreign Ministry and State Duma. A continuing exhibition in Kyiv of photographs from KGB files of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which fought Nazi and Soviet forces from 1942 to 1952, was countered by an anti-UPA exhibition in Russia and threats by Russian nationalists to attack the Kyiv exhibition. Russian nationalists destroyed a famine exhibition in Moscow last year.

In Kyiv there is a consensus among the elite and public alike that relations between Ukraine and Russia will likely continue to deteriorate.

(ZerkaloNedeli, June 7-13; Ukrayinska Pravda, May 26-June 10).

28.06.08. Moscow ready for major confrontations with pro-western  Ukraine

By Pavel Felgenhauer
June 19, 2008

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili (L) and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (R) In the past Russia strongly protested the expansion of NATO to include Central European states that were Soviet clients and former Warsaw Pact members during the Cold War, as well as the Baltic republics that were part of the Soviet Union. In the end, however, Russia backed down and accepted the inevitable shrinking of its effective sphere of influence. Now the rulers in Moscow seem to be ready for a major confrontation that includes the threat of military force against the pro-Western governments in Georgia and Ukraine, which aspire to join the alliance.

After a recent meeting between Russian and Georgian Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Mikhail Saakashvili in St. Petersburg, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists, "We told the Georgians that their desire to join NATO will not help solve the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; it will lead to renewed bloodshed" (RIA-Novosti, June 6). Later Lavrov added in a radio interview, "We will do anything not to allow Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO" (Ekho Moskvy, April 8).

Speaking last week in Sevastopol in Crimea, the main base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov warned Ukraine that joining NATO would have serious consequences: "A complete disruption of military-industrial ties between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable, as well as the reduction of other trade and economic ties and an introduction of a visa regime." Ivanov implied that NATO would "force Ukraine to introduce a visa regime." Ivanov added, "More than 30 million Russians live outside Russia, and we are morally responsible for them" (RIA-Novosti, June 14).

Russian officials connect the possible future Ukrainian NATO membership with the fate of the Black Sea Fleet. Ivanov announced, "It is hard to imagine the Russian Black Sea Fleet without its main base; the fate of Sevastopol matters for all those who lived in the Soviet Union, it is our city." Ukraine's call for the withdrawal of the fleet from Crimea was perilous, because "it is dangerous to play not only with fire but also with history" (Itar-Tass, June 14).

Ivanov's rhetoric matches other recent official statements. Russia's permanent representative to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said in a TV interview: "The Black Sea Fleet simply does not have any other home; no Russian politician will agree for the fleet to leave Sevastopol, and this will not happen" (Vesti TV June 12). A rejection of Ukraine's NATO accession or the possible future withdrawal of the Russian fleet from Crimea after 2017, when the present lease of the Sevastopol base expires, are today part of Russia's official foreign policy. Western assurances that Sevastopol will not be used as a NATO naval base after the Russians withdraw are not taken seriously. But there is a lot of time till 2017 and the Ukrainian NATO accession may not be swift, since today the majority of Ukrainians are against NATO membership and the government in Kyiv has promised a national referendum to decide on membership (RIA-Novosti, June 16).

Russia does not at present have the infrastructure on its own Black Sea coast to house the Black Sea Fleet, and building the needed facilities will require lots of time and money. What is worse, Russia does not have adequate military shipbuilding or ship-maintenance facilities on the Black Sea to keep a large fleet. The flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva, has been repaired and modernized in Mykolaiv in Ukraine at a naval shipyard where in Soviet times all the aircraft carriers were built. Russia has managed to build several relatively small naval ships since 1991 (frigates and coastal patrol boats) in St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, but not enough to replace its rapidly aging navy. Without access to the Mykolaiv yard, there may not be much fleet left to withdraw from Sevastopol (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, June 12).

At present Moscow is using threats that Ukrainians will suffer if their nation joins NATO or if the Russian fleet is ousted from Sevastopol. At the same time, Russia has been supporting pro-Russian separatist feelings in Crimea and making territorial claims on Sevastopol. Moscow needs a pro-Moscow allied government in Kyiv or, if that is impossible, a separation of Crimea and Eastern and Southern Ukraine (with Mykolaiv), where millions of Russian speakers may either want to join Russia or form an allied protectorate.

The situation is different in Georgia, where a vast majority voted to join NATO in a referendum on January 5. There is no hope in Moscow that any anti-NATO pro-Russian forces may come to power in Tbilisi, and military action in support of separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is being seriously contemplated (see EDM, June 12). The Russian Foreign Ministry has officially announced that Moscow refuses to discuss with Tbilisi the legality of the deployment of additional troops and armaments in Abkhazia, because the troops "prevented a Georgian blitzkrieg" (www.mid.ru, June 17). When substantial talks are essentially stopped while additional troops are deployed, it's more than just a threat of the use of force.

28.06.08 High level NATO delegation in outreach visit to Ukraine

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373167
 
June 23, 2008

By Vladimir Socor

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer headed a delegation of the North Atlantic Council (NAC), the alliance's standing decision-making body in Brussels, comprising the 26 member countries' ambassadors, on a visit to Ukraine on June 16 and 17. The visit was the first high-level NATO-Ukraine consultation since NATO 's Bucharest summit in April, where the alliance postponed a decision on Ukraine's application for a membership action plan (MAP) pending further high-level meetings.

This visit revitalized the "Intensified Dialogue on Ukraine's aspirations to membership and relevant reforms," a process launched in 2005 by NATO and Ukraine. This year's NAC visit was, however, the first since 2005, a hiatus reflecting the Ukrainian political forces' immersion in factional struggles to the detriment of national strategic priorities.

A meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) in the ambassadorial 26 + 1 format discussed recent and planned steps to advance cooperation, which should strengthen the case for a Ukrainian MAP. With Ukraine's Foreign Affairs Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko and Defense Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, the Commission took stock of Ukraine's important contributions of airlift capabilities to allied missions and significant participation in the NATO-led Kosovo Force, as well as token contributions to Operation Active Endeavor in the Mediterranean and NATO Training Mission Iraq. The Ukrainian side confirmed its recently expressed willingness to participate in the British-French Helicopter Initiative and in the alliance's Air Situation Data Exchange.

Furthermore, Ukraine now offered to participate in the NATO Response Force as the first partner country to do so and also to facilitate land transit through Ukraine for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF). The allies also welcomed Kyiv's consideration of the possibility of deploying additional personnel to ISAF. A meeting of the NUC at the defense ministers' level on June 13 had prepared the groundwork for political decisions on these issues (NUC communiqu?, June 17).

These issues are additional to the NATO-Ukraine Annual Target Plans for security and defense sectors reforms, which aim at gradual downsizing and modernization amid severe budgetary constraints.

The allied delegation encouraged Ukraine to finance properly the 2008-2011 State Program to Inform Ukrainian Society about the alliance and about the government's own MAP aspirations. Previous programs to educate the Ukrainian public about NATO have suffered from financial and political neglect.

Speaking at Kyiv's Mohyla Academy and in a discussion organized by the Open Ukraine Foundation and Pinchuk Art Center, de Hoop Scheffer signaled in strongest terms that Russia was not entitled to influence decisions on a Ukrainian MAP or ultimate membership in the alliance: "It is crystal clear that any policy course Ukraine might wish to follow is strictly a sovereign decision by the Ukrainian government and finally the Ukrainian people." By the same token, "Decision-making in NATO is by the 26 allies and by them only. Any decision regarding Ukraine's application would not be subject to the influence of third countries." De Hoop Scheffer also "debunked the myths" that Ukrainian membership in the alliance would involve NATO bases on Ukrainian territory or Ukrainian soldiers being forced to participate in allied operations (NATO press release, June 18).

President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko each held talks and press briefings with de Hoop Scheffer in Kyiv. On that occasion and in a follow-up speech in Vynnytsya two days later, Yushchenko linked NATO membership aspirations with the most basic security of statehood: "We want to see Ukraine politically independent and its territory whole." "To preserve Ukraine permanently, it should be a member of the common security system. It is incumbent on our generation to ensure that Ukraine remains sovereign and independent" (Interfax-Ukraine, June 16, 19). For her part, Tymoshenko de-dramatized the internal Ukrainian debate on this issue by citing Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych's earlier endorsement of Ukrainian membership in NATO. Tymoshenko displayed a book published in 2004 in which Yanukovych, prime minister at that time, apparently envisaged Ukraine joining NATO by 2008 (Interfax-Ukraine, June 16).

On the second day of the visit, NATO ambassadors fanned out in groups to three regions of Ukraine for information and outreach events. In the eastern cities of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv they were met, as on the first day in Kyiv, by fringe protest groups from the Communist and Progressive Socialist parties. The Party of Regions did not seem to be involved. The envoys merely commented that the freedom to protest was a sign of democracy in Ukraine (Channel Five TV, June 17).

NATO will next evaluate Ukraine's MAP application at ministerial meetings in December and early 2009, leading up to the alliance's April 2009 summit. Ukraine and supportive countries will have to work around four distinct challenges: lack of enthusiasm among Ukraine's populace (and opposition in some sensitive areas), politicians' involvement in seemingly permanent electioneering, Russian threats of reprisals against the Ukrainian state, and indirect Russian influence in certain European capitals, potentially distorting NATO debates and decisions.

29.06.08. Tymoshenko ønsker folkeafstemning om NATO

Ruslands premierminister Vladimir Putin støtter den ukrainske premierminister Julia Tymoshenkos holdning om, at et ukrainsk medlemskab af NATO kun er mulig efter en folkeafstemning.

På en pressekonference i Moskva blev Tymoshenko spurgt om, hvad der drev hende til at underskrive et brev til NATO, hvori hun var med til at anmode NATO om at tildele Ukraine en Membership Action plan.

Tymoshenko svarede, at et medlemskab af NATO kun er muligt efter en folkeafstemning.

"Hvad NATO-medlemskab angår, så kan jeg sige med sikkerhed, at det ukrainske folks holdning er afgørende, og et hvilken som helst skridt i denne retning vil kun ske efter en folkeafstemning", sagde Tymoshenko.

Hun understregede, at regeringen og hende som leder af sit politiske parti er garanter for dette.

"Det vil jeg ikke kommentere, men det er den eneste rigtige måde at løse problemet på", sagde Putin.

"Ingen nye trusler vil løse denne udvidelse, men tværtimod kun styrke skillelinjerne", tilføjede den russiske premierminister.

Han understregede, at såfremt Ukraine træder ind i NATO, vil landets militærindustrielle kompleks miste konkurrenceevnen, og Rusland derfor vil være nødt til at flytte de ordrer, som landet i dag har placeret i Ukraine. UP.