På 27. pladsen finder man den tidligere oplympiske mester og nuværende
folkedeputere Valerij Borzov, som nr. 31. kommer den afhoppede formand
for Socialistisk ungdomskongres, som trådte ud af SPUs fraktion,
fordi partiet ikke optog ham på partilisten, på 35. pladsen
følger Oleksij Mustafin, der er chefredaktør for Tv-stationen
"Inter"s informationstjeneste, på 45. pladen kommer Viktor Dubohaj,
der er øverste otaman i Unionen af Ukraines kosakorganisationer,
oplyser UP.
1. Petro Symonenko, 1.sekretær for KPUs CK, folkedeputeret, Donetsk
2. Omeljan Parubok, folkedeputeret, Tjerkasy-regionen
3. Ivan Herasymov, formand for sammenslutningen af Ukraines veteraner,
Kyiv
4. Borys Olijnyk, forfatter, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
5. Valerija Zaklunna-Myronenko, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
6. Adam Martynjuk, folkedeputeret, tidligere 1. viceformand for parlamentet,
Kyiv
7. Stanislav Hurenko, folkedeputeret, 2. sekretær i CK, (1. sekretær
under august-kuppet i 1991)
8. Oleksandr Tkatjenko, folkedeputeret, tidligere parlamentsformand,
Kyiv
9. Anatolij Nalyvajko, folkedeputeret, Donetsk-regionen
10. Oleh Blokhin, folkedeputeret, Ukraines (og Sovjets) mest vindende
fodboldsspiller gennem tiderne
11. Leonid Hratj, formand for Krims Verkhovna Rada, Simferopol
12. Valentyn Matvejev, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
13. Petro Tsybenko, folkedeputeret, Luhansk-regionen
14. Georgij Krjutjkov, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
15. Kateryna Samojlyk, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
16. Vasyl Khara, folkedeputeret, Donetsk
17. Volodymyr Matvejev, folkedeputeret, Mykolajiv
18. Vasyl Sirenko, folkedeputeret, Kyiv
19. Heorhij Bujko, folkedeputeret, Donetsk
20. Mykhajlo Potebenjko, Ukraines rigsadvokat, Kyiv
Opstillinglisten skal bekræftes på "Vores Ukraine"s kongres.
11. Ivan Zajets, folkedeputeret og næstformand i partiet UNR og
tidligere miljøminister
12. Les' Tanjuk, folkedeputeret og næstformand i partiet UNR
13. Roman Bezsmertnyj, folkedeputeret og politisk koordinator i "Vores
Ukraine", præsidentens faste repræsentant i Verkhovna Rada
14. Volodymyr Pljutynskyj, folkedeputeret og medlem af fraktionen "Solidaritet"
15. Vjatjeslav Koval', leder af Verkhovna Radas sekretariat, medlem
af Rukh
16. Serhij Sobolev, næstformand i partiet "Reformer og Orden",
formand for "Vores Ukraine"s valgstab i Zaporizhzhja og tidligere rådgiver
for premierministeren
17. Jurij Karmazin, folkedeputeret og formand for partiet "Fædrelandets
Forsvarere"
18. Dmytro Sandler
19. Jurij Kljutjkovskyj, folkedeputeret, næstformand i partiet
Rukh
20. Vjatjeslav Kyrylenko, folkedeputeret, formand for Det unge Rukh
21. Volodymyr Makejenko, folkedeputeret, medlem af fraktionen "Solidaritet"
22. Viktor Musijaka, formand for partiet "Fremad Ukraine!"
23. Oleksij Jaroslavskyj
24. Viktor Kapustin
25. Ernest Holijev
26. Jurij Jekhanurov, tidligere 1. vice-premierminister i Jusjtjenkos
regering, næstformand for "Vores Ukraine"s valgstab med ansvar for
regionalpolitikken
27. Volodymyr Filenko, folkedeputeret og næstformand i partiet
"Reformer og Orden"
28. Mustafa Dzhemilev, folkedeputeret og formand for Krim-tatarernes
øverste råd - Medzhlis
29. Oleksandr Rybatjuk, Jusjtjenkos assistent i premierministertiden,
i dag: en af lederne i Sortehavsbanken for "Samarbejde og Udvikling"
30. Jevhen Tjervonenko, leder af koncernen "Orlan"
På 44. pladsen kommer Sumys guvernør
Volodymyr Sjtjerban, som nr. 46 følger Odesas tidligere borgmester
Eduard Hurvits, mens den nuværende statssekretær i justitsministeriet
Oleksandr Lavrynovytj har opnået en placering på listen som
nr. 59. Den kendte politolog Mykola Tomenko kommer ind som nr. 61, han
følges af den kendte pop-sangerinde Oksana Bilozir på 70.
plads.
At "Vores Ukraine" langt fra er en ensartet flok
af "snylter"politikere bekræftes, når man kaster et blik på
kandidaterne i enkeltmandskredsene, som byder på gensyn med oppositionelle
som "anti-mafia" parlamentarikeren Oleksandr Zhyr (35. kreds), de liberale
reformpolitikere Taras Tjornovil (116. kreds), Taras Stetskiv (118. kreds)
og Serhij Terjokhin (216. kreds) samt Jurij Orobets (222. kreds). Petro
Poroshenko genopstiller i 12. kreds. Formanden for ultra-højre partiet
- Ukraines Sosial-nationale Parti - Oleh Tiahnibok opstiller i 120. kreds,
mens den tidligere guvernør i Zakarpatska-regionen Viktor Baloha
og den jødiske bankmand Leonid Tjernovetskyj prøver lykken
i hhv. 71. kreds og 212. kreds.
The complete text of the following excerpts can be found at
www.kpnews.com/main/10394/
Heirs of Hrushevsky
Social-democratic groups began to re-emerge in Ukraine in the late
1980s with their main bases in Lviv and Kyiv. At first these
social-democratic groups were a Russophone and leftist alternative to
both the Communists and Rukh.
“The Holding”
During the second half of the 1990s, the number of parties claiming to
adhere to a social-democratic ideology increased dramatically. In 1996,
the SDPU(u) was taken over by the clan of Viktor Medvedchuk and
Hryhory Surkis, which controlled the Slavutych holding company and
during the second half of the 1990s acquired influence over nearly all
the
state-owned oblast energy distribution companies (oblenergos). By the
March 1998 parliamentary elections, the party’s election list also
included former President Leonid Kravchuk. After leaving office,
Kravchuk had headed an arts foundation whose main purpose was to
monopolize the lucrative tax-free trade in imported alcohol and tobacco.
In the words of one Ukrainian observer, the SDPU(u) became more of a
“holding” than a real party.
Fall from grace
By late 1999, the SDPU(u) claimed to have 94,000 members. Alone
among the centrist “oligarchic” or “pragmatic” parties, it took the trouble
to establish local branches, open newspapers and craft an ideology.
They had also perhaps become, like former Prime Minister Pavlo
Lazarenko before them, a little too greedy in taking over Ukraine’s
assets. In particular, Viktor Yushchenko has singled out the SDPU(u)
alone among the oligarchs for his wrath. They certainly stood to lose the
most from the energy reforms initiated by Yushchenko’s deputy Yulia
Tymoshenko.
Vil stemme pe | helt sikkert | sandsynligvis | næppe | helt sikkert ikke | ved ikke |
Vores Ukraine | 16% | 15% | 12% | 33% | 24% |
KPU | 13% | 8% | 12% | 44% | 23% |
De Grønne | 7% | 13% | 16% | 38% | 26% |
SDPU (o) | 5% | 8% | 15% | 43% | 29% |
Kvinder for fremtiden | 5% | 14% | 15% | 37% | 28% |
ZaJEdU (Lytvyn, Kinakh) | 3% | 9% | 20% | 36% | 33% |
Jabluko | 3% | 7% | 17% | 44% | 29% |
SPU | 2% | 5% | 17% | 47% | 29% |
Julia Tymoshenkos blok | 2% | 5% | 13% | 57% | 24% |
Jednist (Omeltjenko) | 1% | 4% | 15% | 45% | 34% |
Demokratisk Union-DP | 1% | 1% | 15% | 49% | 34% |
Rukh (Bojko) | 0% | 2% | 13% | 55% | 29% |
Natalia Vitrenkos blok | 2% | 7% | 14% | 51% | 26% |
To uger inden 1. runde af præsidentvalget i 1999 viste en prognose
fra et andet meningsmålingsinstitut, at den progressive socialist
Natalia Vitenko stod til ca. 25% af stemmerne (hun opnåede kun 11%),
mens KPUs Petro Symonenko stod til at opnå ca. 17%, men endte med
at få 22% i 1. valgrunde. Generelt ramte alle de ukrainske meningsmålingsinstitutter
dengang rimelig meget ved siden af hvad angår stemmefordelingen til
de to venstrefløjskandidater.
RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC RFE/RL Crime, Corruption, and Terrorism Watch Vol. 1, No. 6, 6 December 2001
THE TRACTOR DRIVER OF THE STATE -- THE CASE OF PAVLO LAZARENKO (Part 1).
The case of Pavlo Ivanovych Lazarenko, once one of the most powerful
men in Ukraine and now an inmate at a federal detention facility in
California, is a classic study of high- level corruption in Ukraine. It
involves not only Lazarenko but a long list of players beginning with the
Ukrainian president (who appointed Lazarenko prime minister), to the
head of the Intelligence Service that vetted the appointment, to the
Prosecutor's Office that watched as an impoverished nation was bled
dry. It is also the story of a lax law-enforcement system and parliament
which refused to investigate his dealings, preferring to let the dirty
work
be done by the United States and Switzerland and only afterwards
becoming a minor participant.
The extent of Lazarenko's activities may never be known. The major
frauds which have been documented in the West include his dealings with
the Naukova State Farm, United Energy Systems of Ukraine, and the
GHP Corporation scam. There is also evidence of his relationship with
President Leonid Kuchma in the creation of a mobile-phone company in
Ukraine, where Lazarenko's money was used as the start-up capital of
this firm.
The case has been plagued by constant postponements of the trial date
and changes in Lazarenko's defense team. It now is due to begin in 2002
in San Francisco.
THE SCIENTIFIC STATE FARM
Pavlo Lazarenko began his career as a young tractor driver on a
collective farm in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. He rapidly rose
in the ranks of Soviet Ukraine through loyalty to his superiors and a
willingness to cut them in on deals that he controlled. At one point in
his
interrogation he admitted that, as prime minister, he always took 10
percent of every deal. It was also widely known that this 10 percent cut
was shared by others.
The first documented scam that brought Lazarenko fame among the elite
in Kyiv was connected with the unlikely commodity of Angus cattle.
Naukova ("Scientific") was a state-owned cattle-breeding farm located
in the village of Taromsk in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. Its
director was Mykola Agafonov. It also became a "Leased Research
Farm" (also headed by Agafonov) and eventually an agro- business of
the Ukrainian Academy of Agrarian Sciences.
On 10 August 1992, when Leonid Kuchma was prime minister of
Ukraine and Pavlo Lazarenko was the president's (at that time, Leonid
Kravchuk's) representative to the Dnipropetrovsk region,. Agafonov
signed two contracts with Dutch company Van Der Ploeg & Terpstra,
B.V. According to those contracts, $11.088 million was to be deposited
with ABN-AMRO Bank by Naukova, to be used by the Dutch firm to
purchase 8,400 head of cattle for Naukova. Director Agafonov did not
have the cash to buy the cattle, so he turned to Lazarenko for help in
raising cash by selling ferrous metals and using part of the proceeds to
pay for livestock. Lazarenko helped Agafonov obtain an export license
from Kyiv for the metal, which he sold to Van Der Ploeg & Terpstra.
Agafonov sold 64,000 tons of ferrous metals to the Dutch company,
more than compensating for the amount needed to buy the Angus cattle.
According to information from Hryhoriy Omelchenko, the head of the
Ukrainian parliament's anticorruption committee, these metals were then
purchased from Van Der Ploeg & Terpstra by fugitive American
financier Marc Rich, Concord Trade Limited, and Cargill.
These initial dealings took place when Kuchma was the Ukrainian prime
minister. In 1993 Kuchma gave the "Scientific" farm 110 head of cattle
free-of-charge in order to promote cattle breeding. Agafonov himself
admitted that both Kuchma and Lazarenko were close to his company;
according to Agafonov, Kuchma often visited the "Scientific" state farm
at the time. It was also Kuchma, as prime minister, who had to approve
the export licenses for ferrous metals from Ukraine.
In the so-called "Superseding Indictment" of Pavlo Lazarenko by the
United States, dated 30 November 2000, it is stated:
"Lazarenko, while a government official in Ukraine, received money
derived from fraud from Mykola Agafonov, who was the chief
administrator of Naukovy State Farm...as follows:
"1. Lazarenko, while a government official in Ukraine,
exercised his official authority to ensure that Naukovy State
Farm received various benefits and privileges from the
government of Ukraine, including the right to export metal
products and raw materials produced by Ukrainian state
enterprises.
"2. Agafonov then exercised the right to export metal
products and raw materials by entering into a series of
agreements with Van Der Ploeg & Terpstra, B.V., in
Leeuwarden, the Netherlands, for the purchase of cattle
and other related supplies by Naukovy State Farm,
pursuant to which the cattle and other related supplies were
to be paid for in part with Ukrainian government funds and
in part from the proceeds of the sale of metal products and
raw materials exported from Ukraine.
"3. After the metal products and raw materials were
exported from Ukraine and sold, the proceeds from the
sale of metal products and raw materials exceeded the
actual price of the cattle and other related materials.
"4. Agafonov caused the preparation of false contracts in
which the value of the cattle was fraudulently inflated to
account for most of the excess funds received by him from
the sale of metal products and raw materials....
"7. Of the approximately $34,000,000 that were deposited
into the ABN-AMRO accounts from the sale of metal
products and raw materials, Agafonov transferred
approximately $20,000,000 into personal accounts
belonging to himself, his associates, and Lazarenko,
including a transfer of $1,205,000 to Account No.
502.607.03L in the name of LIP Handel A.G., in Fribourg,
Switzerland; a transfer of $2,972,000 and $4,000,000 to
account No. 08-05785-3 in the name of KATO-82 at
Credit Lyonnais Bank in Zurich, Switzerland; and a transfer
of $6,014,000 to account No. 21383 at Banque Populaire
Suisse in the name of ORPHIN. S.A. which was
subsequently transferred to account No. 21768 in the name
of NIHPRO at Banque Populaire Suisse controlled by
Lazarenko."
The Kuchma-Lazarenko relationship continued to bear fruit in the
coming years.
(To be continued.)
(Compiled by Roman Kupchinsky)
Carlos Pascual is the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. From 1998 to 2000, he was senior director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia at the National Security Council. Steven Pifer is deputy assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. He was the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000.
For much of the last millennium, Ukraine as a state was more a vision
of its people than a political reality. Rule came from abroad and initiative
was repressed—until 1991. In that year, Ukraine split from the Soviet Union
and gained its best chance to establish itself as a sovereign and inde-pendent
state. Across the nation, millions of people formed a human chain in
a call for freedom. Ten years later, Ukraine has established its indepen-dence
and strengthened what was, in the early 1990s, a fragile nation-state.
The character of that independent Ukraine is still evolving: how free a
society,
how strong its democratic values, how competitive its economy, how
deep the rule of law, how much a prisoner of corruption? Accomplishments
and disappointments have filled the last 10 years. For
most of that time, the Ukrainian people suffered a crushing economic
contraction that wiped away their savings and cut their incomes by more
than half. Yet as a nation, Ukraine held together, as if by some innate
belief, produced through a thousand years of Ukrainian culture, that being
Ukrainian meant something. Ukrainians often felt disappointed that the
West did not help more. The West often resented that Ukraine did not make
more of its assistance. Ten years later, we need to understand these clashing
perspectives and use that knowledge to advance a shared goal of Ukraine
as a
democratic, market-oriented, and prosperous European state. If any
lesson has been learned, it is that Ukraine’s future is its own to de-fine.
Outsiders can help or hinder, but their impact is marginal. The principal
choices are Ukraine’s to make. Never before has Ukraine been able to make
this claim. Never before has Ukraine shouldered such responsibility for
itself.
Politically, there is really no middle road. Ukraine must either walk
with the civilized world as a responsible democracy, or its indecision
will isolate it. Indications are that Ukraine’s leaders understand this
choice and are taking sound steps in their foreign policy, but in the long
term, the success of
Ukraine’s foreign policy will depend on domestic choices—the political
and economic character of the Ukrainian state. These traits will fundamentally
shape Ukraine’s possibilities as a partner in the Euro-Atlantic community.
From a U.S. perspective, this article charts some of the lessons of the
past
and issues for the future. Ironically, the next 25 years are perhaps
easier to predict than the next 10 years. Imagining a state as large as
Ukraine, given its history and culture, and with such natural and human
resources, as any-thing other than European is difficult. The big question
is which path
Ukraine will take to reach that goal—an easy path or a difficult one.
The choices that Ukraine’s leaders make now will determine that path and
will have major consequences for the Ukrainian people.
A National Transformation
How to assess Ukraine and its prospects depends on how one understands
the process of change during the past 10 years. One must recall that Soviet
Ukraine was no more than part of an authoritarian, oppressive empire. The
state controlled every economic entity from defense monoliths to corner
bread stores. Corruption was a way of life: petty corruption to get by;
whole-sale corruption enriching the privileged few. Suppression was the
watchword for politics. There were no press freedoms, only one party, and
no semblance of civil society. Human rights and religious freedoms were
routinely trounced. Moscow defined political and economic life. The needs
and interests of the state—as a handful of people at the top determined—were
more important than the neglect of the people. From this starting point,
building a modern Ukrainian state was a monumental challenge, and monumental
successes have been achieved. In 1996, a new constitution officially revoked
Ukraine’s Soviet constitution. In 1997, Ukraine and NATO signed a “Distinctive
Partnership” agreement. Today,
Ukraine annually engages in hundreds of military activities with NATO
and its members. Ukraine renounced its nuclear weapons and is safer for
having done so. It has joined the Open Skies Treaty. Elections for president
and parliament, even if flawed, have become accepted as the mechanism to
transfer political power. The Ukrainian people value their vote—about
70 percent show up each election day. In December 2000, Ukraine closed
the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and turned the page on one of the most
tragic chapters in its history.
Yet today’s Ukraine is still not what all Ukrainians hoped it would
be. For eight years after independence, Ukraine’s economy contracted violently.
Fear of change led to economic and political half-steps. Pensions went
unpaid, and massive salary arrears mounted. Ukrainians had independence
but had lost faith in their country. For some, a brighter future seemed
unattainable as hardship came to define reality. A question often asked
is, Why has the transition been so difficult? With hindsight, perhaps we
should have considered why we would have thought otherwise. Ukraine is
undergoing three radical transformations—from regional outpost to nation-state,
from authoritarianism to democracy, and from command economy to market
economy—simultaneously. In effect, every aspect of people’s political and
economic lives, as well as how they thought of themselves as a nation,
changed. Obviously, doing all of this at once is difficult; we should expect
problems and complications. At an individual level, such massive transformations
mean a new sociological and psychological mind-frame. They cause instability
and insecurity and at times make people vulnerable to ugly forces such
as nationalism and corruption. Managing such change is a generational challenge.
Nor is the process of transition linear. Within each of these transitions
are two processes: tearing apart the old and building the new. Building
a new state is more difficult than tearing apart an old empire. Decayed
structures crumble, and new buildings take time to erect. Changes in human
infrastructure are even more profound: writing new laws, educating legislators
to pass them, creating institutions to oversee them, training individuals
to enforce them, educating the public to understand the differences, creating
the checks and balances in a society that allow a new social order
to prevail, and internalizing the culture of a society based on openness
and freedom. Defining, much less creating, a modern European Ukraine is
not an overnight task. Time, however, is only part of the difficulty. Once
the old is torn apart, gaps will appear before the creation of the new.
What fills the void in the interim? What is the source of order when, ironically,
the Communist state has collapsed and become a state hostage to patronage?
Some have argued that the better course of action is waiting until the
new state is “ready” before dismantling the old. Others argue that the
two processes should run in tandem. The theories are interesting, but life
is more complex; building the new will always take longer. Ukraine is going
through three radical transformations simultaneously.
Deciding that the risk of interim chaos was worth the price of independence,
Ukraine seized the opportunity, forcing itself to confront chaos while
it builds its future society. The challenge now, Ukraine’s “Lockean dilemma,”has
its roots in seventeenth-century political philosophy: creating a
society founded on the principles of freedom, openness, and competition,
yet regulated to prevent one individual’s rights from infringing on those
of another—with courts to mediate disputes. Where the Soviet Union found
order in authoritarianism, Ukraine must seek a sociocultural revolution,
in which order stems from respect for the law and the rights of other individuals.
In effect, Ukraine is defining a new state, new political ideology, new
economic foundations, new philosophical framework, and new social contract.
This change is cultural, not just physical. As any sociologist will say,
cultural change is messy and long. Leaders can shape it. It takes root,
however, only when people change from within.
Ten Tumultuous Years of Change At the beginning of the 1990s, some
in the West highlighted the promise of Ukraine’s human capital, agricultural
potential, and industrial capability, predicting the country could be an
early post-Soviet success story. Others took a grimmer view, regarding
Ukraine as a fragile state destined for hard times, even as a nation at
risk. Looking at 10 years of post-Soviet transition, saying that Ukraine
has avoided the worst pitfalls that the pessimists fore-told is fair. That
outcome is good; avoiding disaster is a success of sorts. One unfortunately
also must say, however, that Ukraine has failed to fulfill the bright hopes
that the optimists described. In Ukraine’s early years of independence,
both the nation and the West focused more, for reasons that are understandable,
on giving substance to symbols of Ukrainian—as opposed to Soviet—statehood
rather than the internal
policies needed to underpin a prosperous, democratic state. Ukraine
had virtually no history as a modern, independent state, and symbols of
statehood had enormous emotional and political significance. The risks
of a collapsing state were enormous, possibly resulting in the reconstitution
of the Soviet empire or massive instability in the heart of Europe. In
effect, Ukraine and the West found themselves in an unintended and unfortunate
collusion that encouraged Ukraine to skirt many of the most basic economic
and political issues fundamental to prosperity. Forging a domestic policy
consensus bordered on the impossible for Ukraine. About 91 percent of Ukrainians
voted for independence in 1991. Beyond that, however, ideological consensus
was scarce. The relatively conservative and nationalistic Rukh Party pressed
for stronger ties to the West.
The Communist Party still remained the largest and best-organized network
in the country. The national leadership was almost exclusively bred in
the Communist Party’s system. People had no experience of freedom and markets.
Pensioners, who constituted one-fourth of the population, feared
change. Although consensus for independence was overwhelming, no vision
of what a sovereign and independent Ukraine should be, or how it should
relate to Europe, was common. Half-measures in policy that made economic
chaos a self-fulfilling prophecy exacerbated fear of change. In 1992 and
1993, some of today’s economic reformers argued that liberalizing prices
and dismantling the state distribution system would create chaos and that
entrepreneurs and consumers could not make economic choices for themselves.
Following this course of action led to policies that kept the state involved
in most economic activity, despite proclaimed steps toward liberalization
and structural reform. The result is well documented. The state went bankrupt
and shadow markets blossomed. In 1993, inflation reached more than 10,000
percent. By 1999, gross domestic product (GDP) had collapsed by 60 percent.
By many accounts, well more than half of Ukraine’s national income was
produced outside the official economy, meaning corruption was rampant and
income was untaxed.
In Ukraine as anywhere else, when reform slows and standards of living
suffer, politicians blame their opponents. At a time when Ukraine needed
to create a national identity, it became entrapped in the “politics of
blame.” For a politician, personal success lay in successfully casting
blame for the country’s woes on one’s opponents. Few offered a vision of
how to create a better life. Such tendencies made forging consensus on
contentious issues, especially on economic policy, nearly impossible, resulting
in a virtual policy roller coaster in which reforms never were sufficiently
sustained to produce the desired results, and investors shied away. Cumulative
foreign investment by 1999 was less than $3.5 billion, compared to more
than $35 billion in Poland, a smaller country with fewer people and natural
resources. To the extent Kiev addressed internal issues, it focused on
managing ethnic diversity while promoting a national identity. One does
not have to look far in the region to see how badly things can go wrong
if ethnicity is not managed well. The Ukrainian government in effect defused
the sensitivity
of the issue over Ukrainian and Russian languages and allowed Russian
speakers to feel as if they were Ukrainian by allowing communities considerable
choice over the language used for business and education. Increasingly,
Ukraine built a sense of national identity, albeit one that is shallow
in some
Managing such change is a generational challenge.
Although Ukrainian society has differences within it, the reality is more complex, nuanced, and hopeful than the oft-presented caricature of a simple ethnic Ukrainian–ethnic Russian divide. That national identity was perhaps best capped with the passage of a constitution in 1996 that gave Ukraine the legal underpinnings of an independent and sovereign state. Fraught with political conflict at home, Ukraine sought recognition and respect internationally. Having suffered the Chernobyl crisis, it deemed forgoing its nuclear weapons as a sound decision to gain international recognition and respectability. In January 1994, the Trilateral Statement among Ukraine, Russia, and the United States resolved the nuclear weapons question. By the end of 1994, Ukraine had acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and was transferring nuclear weapons to Russia for elimination. The United States had provided Kiev security assurances and had launched a robust Cooperative Threat Reduction effort to assist Ukraine in eliminating the nuclear legacy of the Cold War.
In 1997, Ukraine achieved perhaps its most impressive string of foreign
policy successes. Ukraine concluded agreements with Russia on the Black
Sea fleet and on bilateral relations, resulting in the formal recognition
of Ukrainian sovereignty in Moscow. It signed agreements with Moldova and
Belarus, delimiting shared borders. In June 1997, President Leonid D. Kuchma
joined the leaders of NATO to sign the NATO-Ukraine Charter on a Distinctive
Partnership, a document that outlined practical areas for cooperation between
NATO and Ukraine and established a standing mechanism for consultation.
Ukraine’s initial focus on gaining “foreign recognition”coincidentally
meshed with the United States’ preoccupation at the end of the Cold War.
The United States did not want the breakup of the Soviet Union to increase
the number of nuclear weapons states. Ukrainian retention of nuclear weapons
would have been a major setback for global nuclear nonproliferation efforts,
which at the time focused on securing an indefinite extension of the NPT,
and would have been fraught with risks and dangers for Kiev and Moscow—as
perhaps the only issue that raised a plausible prospect of Russian
military action against Ukraine.
Once the nuclear question was resolved, other aspects of U.S.-Ukrainian
relations vastly expanded, but an unspoken frustration was always present.
The United States provided more than $2 billion in assistance and credits
through 2000. Much of it produced important micro-results: more than 24,000
Ukrainians trained in exchange programs, nuclear safety improved, and small
business opportunities expanded significantly. Yet Ukraine never quite
reached the anticipated economic levels that its Central European neighbors
achieved. Kiev, for its part, often felt it did not get credit for many
tough reform measures. In hindsight, Ukraine and its relations with
other nations suffered because Ukraine did not achieve “necessary and sufficient”
conditions for successful reforms. Ukraine indeed undertook some necessary
steps and sought commensurate rewards, but it never amassed sufficient
reforms to generate the kind of economic stimulus it desired. Thus, through
1999, Ukraine’s development and its relations with Western countries were
a halting dance forward—generally moving in the right direction, but frustrating
to both sides because the results failed to meet either side’s expectations.
To be ‘European’ depends on domestic policy choices.
The Ups and Downs of the New Millennium
The year 2000 changed the landscape of Ukrainian politics and economics,
and the final shape of these changes is still evolving. Economically, Ukraine
began to implement fiscal, energy, and agricultural reforms that led to
un-precedented growth and shifted the terms of the internal economic debate.
Fiscal responsibility and transparency became accepted buzzwords in
Ukraine’s political lexicon. Yet just when Ukraine began to turn the corner
economically, in September 2000 Giorgiy Gongadze, a prominent journalist,
disappeared. In November that year, a decapitated body was found, which
analyses by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) eventually confirmed
in May 2001 as Gongadze. Meanwhile, also in November, released audio recordings
implied Kuchma’s and other key officials’ complicity in Gongadze’s disappearance.
The tapes implied a series of political and corruption scandals, creating
uproar in Ukrainian politics and isolating Ukraine from the West.
These political and economic developments are important to understand
in order to assess a path forward. Three reforms dominated Ukraine’s economic
revival: a balanced budget executed almost completely through cash transactions,
cash transactions as the basis for payment in the electricity sector, and
private production in agriculture. In 2000, Ukrainian GDP grew about 5
percent, and growth through August 2001 registered an annual growth rate
of about 10 percent. Ukraine surely got a strong boost from sharp growth
in Russia, especially due to high oil prices that stimulated Russian demand
for Ukrainian goods, but Ukrainian growth has been broad based, extending
to agriculture, light
industry, metallurgy, and retail sales. Exports to Russia account for
only part of Ukraine’s recovery.
Through 1999, barter, or “offsets,” accounted for about half of Ukraine’s
budget. Businesses would accumulate credits to the government. The government
would issue tax bills, and deals would be cut to offset taxes against accumulated
government debts to business. The result: the government was cash starved,
pension and salary arrears mounted, fiscal instability created constant
pressure on monetary policy, and the lack of transparency in government
accounts created conditions in which corruption could thrive. In 2000,
Ukraine accepted international recommendations to implement a cash budget;
the results were almost immediate and beyond expectations. By the end of
2000, the government executed the budget almost completely in cash. It
paid off pension arrears and most of its salary arrears, and it remained
current on salaries and pensions. By late 2001, private agricultural production
increased from 25 percent of acreage planted the previous year to 75 percent.
Although Ukraine has not privatized land, it has given all former collective
farm workers certificates that it gradually is converting into land titles.
Based on a December 1999 decree, Ukrainians on former collectives were
allowed to lease
land to private farmers. After some initial months of uncertainty,
Ukrainian private farmers learned how to use this decree to sign leases
with certificate holders to amass sizable farms. In addition, the government
stopped interfering in the distribution of agricultural inputs and limited
its role in agriculture
to interest-rate subsidies. That decision opened the door for private
networks to distribute fertilizer and chemicals, reversing a declining
trend in their use. The harvest in 2001 is estimated at 38.5 million metric
tons, up more than 70 percent from the previous year’s harvest. In energy,
Ukraine radically increased cash collections for electricity bills from
less than 10 percent in January 2000 to more than 70 percent per month
in mid-2001. With more cash flowing through the system, Ukraine had additional
resources to pay fuel bills and miners. This change also provided the government
with a usable tool to crack down on corruption: cash accounts can be audited;
barter cannot. In addition, with more cash in
hand, Ukraine was able to conclude a new gas agreement to obtain 50
percent of its gas imports from Turkmenistan. (Most gas imported from Russia
comes through a barter arrangement that pays Ukraine 30 billion cubic meters
of gas per year for transporting Russian gas to Western Europe.)
By no means are Ukraine’s energy problems resolved. The coal sector
is in disarray, electricity tariffs do not cover costs, and the electricity
sector cannot survive if 30 percent of bills go unpaid. The budgetary and
economic impact of the radical increase in cash collections, however, was
an essential
step in the right direction, hopefully breeding further success. With
these reforms, Ukraine unleashed latent economic activity that began to
translate into higher incomes and greater security about the future for
its people. By the end of August 2001, real personal income had in-creased
by 11 percent compared to the previous year. As of September 2001, consumer
confidence levels had risen by more than 44 percent in one year. Assets
in the banking sector doubled, reflecting a massive increase in savings.
In a September 2001 survey that the International Foundation for Election
Systems (IFES) conducted, 74 percent of Ukrainians said that they expected
the economy to get better or at least stay the same.
Serious concerns remain about the Gongadze case.
The Gongadze disappearance and the Melnychenko tapes (named after the
former presidential security agent who claims he made the recordings) implicating
Kuchma and other high officials threw Ukrainian politics into disarray
late in 2000, just when the positive effects of the economic turn-around
began to be seen and felt. When the United States accepted Melnychenko’s
application for refugee status in April 2001, U.S.-Ukrainian relations
suffered, even though U.S. officials made this decision based
strictly on U.S. immigration laws. The lack of progress on the Gongadze
investigation, which even Kuchma noted, raised questions about the rule
of law in Ukraine. A tenuous political alliance that had secured parliamentary
cooperation on critical reforms came undone. Political parties became bitter
competitors as they took stances on the scandal or sought to exploit it.
Political rivalries led to the
parliament’s vote of no confidence in the government of reformist Prime
Minister Victor Yushchenko, even though he had played no role in the Gongadze
case. Many Western countries cooled their relations, pressing Ukraine to
undertake promptly a transparent and credible investigation of the case.
The murder of another journalist in July 2001 and the beatings of two
others raised questions about whether those who disagree with the press
(not necessarily the government) can seek revenge without consequence.
For months, political disarray derailed momentum on policy reform. Through
May 2001, internal politics consumed the parliament exclusively. Ukraine’s
International Monetary Fund (IMF) program went off track, in turn freezing
World Bank assistance and an agreement with the Paris Club
nations. Critical legislation was shelved. The political cloud also
obscured positive changes in the press environment. Journalists boldly
reported most aspects of the political scandal. Because of intense domestic
and international scrutiny, journalists have said that their principal
concern is now not with the government but with editorial constraints that
their oligarch owners impose. When a new prime minister was confirmed in
late May 2001, expectations were low. Would Ukrainian politics fall back
into a deadlock that would freeze both economic and political reforms?
For various reasons, those worst fears have not materialized. Fiscal reforms
have been sustained, Ukraine renewed its IMF program in September 2001,
and the rescheduling of its Paris Club debt is moving forward. Some important
economic legislation has passed, particularly budget and criminal codes.
The parliament is
considering other key pieces of legislation—the land, tax, and customs
codes; a law on an independent judiciary; and a law on intellectual property.
Whether they pass will fundamentally shape the next stage of Ukraine’s
economic progress.
Whether Kuchma, the prime minister, and the parliament can find the
political consensus to advance these measures as Ukraine nears parliamentary
elections in 2002 will fundamentally test the national commitment to integrate
with Euro-Atlantic markets. Ukraine clearly needs to dispel the cloud that
the Gongadze case has created if it wants to instill confidence in the
rule of law and in the fairness of
its legal system—and if it wants to restore international and domestic
confidence in Ukraine’s government. The IFES poll showed that about 60
percent of Ukrainians do not or only somewhat trust Kuchma and his presidential
administration; 85 percent of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the situation
in Ukraine; and nearly half (47 percent) believe Ukraine is not a democracy.
With the Gongadze case, the most crucial issue is demonstrating that the
legal system works. With Ukraine as a whole, the fundamental issue is creating
confidence that Ukraine is committed to the democratic principles that
fundamentally define a European state.
The Question of Russia
Throughout Ukraine’s short history of independence, relations with
Russia have loomed heavily. Some fear that Russia seeks to manipulate and
control Ukraine politically and economically. Conversely, Ukraine is sometimes
seen as a critical barrier to reconstituting a Soviet empire. Throughout
the past
year of political scandals, relations with Russia became an even more
important factor. When Kuchma found little solace in the West, Russia continued
to draw closer, raising questions about whether Ukraine had compromised
its sovereignty. Rumored Ukrainian concessions on national security have
simply proved false. A bigger question is whether both Ukraine’s relations
with Russia and the Ukrainian business climate possess sufficient transparency
to ensure that Ukraine gets the value it deserves out of its assets. The
United States has consistently encouraged good relations between
Ukraine and Russia. They are neighbors: a reforming Ukraine should
want a reforming Russia on its border, and vice versa. To some extent,
Ukraine will always need Russian fuel, and they should be major trading
partners. The United States endorses both regional and bilateral economic
ties as long as
nations enter freely into those ties, which also do not detract from
a nation’s integration with international markets and the trans-Atlantic
community.
In January 2001, the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministers met in
Crimea. A month later, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Kuchma met in Dnepropetrovsk,
the heart of Ukraine’s missile industry. Between the two meetings, rumors
and press reports intimated that Ukraine and Russia had created a joint
naval combat unit, that Ukraine had given Russia veto power over Ukrainian
participation in NATO exercises, and that Ukraine and Russia would jointly
produce intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to counter U.S. missile
defenses. These rumors were simply wrong. Ukraine and Russia are,
quite legitimately, creating a long-planned search-and-rescue unit
for the Black Sea. Ukraine has intensified its cooperation with NATO and
its member states, including 120 joint-participation events with NATO in
2001, more than 70 with Poland, more than 60 with the United States, and
more still with other NATO countries. Ukraine and Russia are cooperating
on ICBMs, but only to share technology on their dismantlement and perhaps
to convert SS-18s from carrying warheads to carrying
commercial satellites to low earth orbit. Less clear is the nature
of Russian-Ukrainian economic relations.
Virtually every year, tensions arise over Ukraine’s gas debt to Russia. Ukraine has steadfastly insisted that this debt is commercial, not sovereign, and has avoided state guarantees that could be converted into Russian equity in strategic infrastructure. Early signs suggest that the two countries reached an agreement in early October 2001 to reschedule the debt, although such agreements have collapsed in the past. Ukraine and Russia also signed an agreement in August 2001 to unify their electricity grids. When Russia cut Ukraine off from the grid several years ago due to fluctuations in Ukrainian frequencies, it was perceived as Russian manipulation. The unification agreement has raised similar allegations. The truth will depend on the actual implementation and must be watched carefully. In addition to these large energy transactions, numerous sales and privatizations of Ukrainian economic entities proceed constantly. At issue is not whether the sales go to Russia, but whether they are transparent. For context, U.S. direct foreign investment in Ukraine since 1991 is by far the largest of any investor—133 percent higher than direct investments from Russia. Some Russian investments have clearly benefited Ukraine, such as Lukoil’s purchase of the Odessa Oil Refinery, which resulted in increased productivity and wages for the refinery’s workers. The key is to ensure that privatization and bankruptcy cases are handled transparently and with maximum competition. Otherwise, Ukrainian interests will not be served, whether the buyer is Ukrainian, Russian, or of some other nationality.
In the long term, Ukraine’s best guarantee of its sovereignty and parity
in its relations with Russia is its commitment to democracy and a strong
economy tied to global markets. Kuchma has unequivocally stated that Ukraine
has made a “European choice” and that there are no other options in its
foreign policy. Slowly, Ukraine is recognizing that this European choice
is as much a question of domestic policy as of foreign policy. To be “European”
depends on free and fair elections, freedom of the press, objectivity of
the courts, the soundness of one’s tax system, confidence in the rule of
law—in other
words, domestic policy choices that are Ukraine’s to make. As President
George W. Bush said in
June 2001, if this is Ukraine’s aspiration, we should reward it.
The United States and Ukraine: Looking Forward
The long-term objectives of the United States and Ukraine for Ukraine
co-incide: a democratic, market-oriented, prosperous state founded on the
rule of law and integrated with Europe. For the United States, these goals
are long standing, underpinned by strong bipartisan consensus. To achieve
these ends, keeping focused on long-term objectives and not allowing every
twist and turn of Ukrainian domestic politics to drive U.S. policy is crucial.
Current events should not be ignored; rather, our capacity to address them
will be stronger if they are integrated into a consistent long-term policy
agenda. For that reason, the United States will continue to engage Ukraine
and support a reform agenda consistent with Ukraine’s integration with
Europe. Based on the lessons of the last 10 years, clearly the success
of international efforts to support Ukraine will depend on the clarity
and efficacy of
Ukraine’s own efforts to build an open and democratic political system
and a competitive market economy. Increasingly, consensus regarding which
issues must take priority is growing among Ukrainians. The following agenda
is not so much the U.S. wish list, but a reflection of the comments we
now consistently hear from Ukrainian officials and activists.
THE GONGADZE CASE
Serious concerns remain about this case, which has effectively become
a litmus test of the rule of law in Ukraine. Thus far, Ukrainian law enforcement
authorities’ handling of the Gongadze case evokes little confidence. An
FBI analysis concluded in May that a body found last November was indeed
Gongadze, but no evident movement has been made toward identifying
the murderer. Ukrainian officials have invited FBI officials to return
to Ukraine to consult on the case. If the prosecutor general shares its
evidence and records with the FBI and engages in a serious dialogue on
the conduct of the investi-gation, those actions will be welcome steps
to help create confidence in the nature and course of the investigation.
The situation would also benefit if law enforcement officials discuss publicly
the course of their investigations into murdered or assaulted journalists—not
to reveal confidential information, but to make clear whether credible
investigations are being conducted and to signal
that violence against journalists will not be tolerated.
MARCH 2002 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Elections are the most fundamental element of any democracy. A free
and fair electoral process culminating in a free and fair election next
March will send a strong signal to the international community that Ukraine
has matured politically and is back on the track of democratic reform.
They also will help redress the lack of domestic confidence in Ukraine’s
political system. During the last national election in Ukraine, the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) found serious problems involving
state pressure on the media as well as on opponents and their supporters,
although we believe that the problems did not necessarily negate the election
results. Ukraine must start work now to ensure a free and fair election.
Having the right legal framework for the electoral process is critical.
Key issues will be the role of the press, whether governors and mayors
allow a level
playing field for all parties, the role of the courts in settling disputes,
broad participation of election observers, a parallel vote count that engenders
trust in the official results, and effective mechanisms to respond to violations
in the course of the election campaign. All countries experience controversies
and disputes in their elections; the last U.S. presidential election
demonstrated that the United States is certainly no exception. For any
country, establishing mechanisms that will build a consensus on the final
results and provide confidence that, in the end, the rule of law has been
ob-served is key to building trust in its government.
INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM
Ukraine’s leaders have pledged solidarity with the international coalition
to combat terrorism. Thousands of ordinary Ukrainian citizens have brought
flowers to the U.S. embassy in Kiev, sent letters, and signed condolence
books. Ukraine has provided blanket overflight clearance for military transport
aircraft and emergency landing rights at three airbases. It has worked
hand in hand with U.S. intelligence officials, taken steps to tighten security
around sensitive facilities, and has welcomed U.S. help. It has also tightened
security around U.S. diplomatic facilities and businesses. Ukraine has
played constructive diplomatic roles at the United Nations and with the
grouping of GUUAM states (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and
Moldova). Among the tasks remaining, Ukraine can continue to play a strong,
constructive role by passing a money laundering law to help keep financial
resources out of the hands of terrorists. Ukraine can continue to work
with Moldova to control the border with Transdnistria. At home, Ukraine
can reassure its citizens that the fight against terrorism and a reaffirmation
of freedom must go together because freedom is the core value under attack.
SOUND, CASH-BASED BUDGET
No single reform has had a more powerful impact on the Ukrainian economy
than implementing a cash-based budget with a limited deficit that can be
realistically financed. Temptations to loosen spending will appear as elections
approach. Presidential leadership will be crucial to maintaining fiscal
stability and preserving the foundations for low inflation and economic
growth while allowing the government to meet key obligations to salaries
and pensions.
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR MARKET DEMOCRACY
Much of Ukraine’s recent economic success stems from shedding some
of the barter economy’s strangleholds and from liberalizing economic activity.
To attract significant new investment, Ukraine must establish a modern
legal framework that establishes clear and fair ground rules for economic
activity and for its court system. Perhaps no law would be more important
than a land code, which can unleash a new dynamic for rural investment,
allow land to be used as an instrument to raise financing, and give local
governments an independent tax base. A law creating the legal basis to
fight money laundering is also needed to give Ukraine the financial tools
it needs in the fight against terrorism. Other necessary laws include tax
and customs codes, a law on an independent judiciary, and legislation to
protect intellectual property.
CREATE AN EFFECTIVE COURT SYSTEM
Many investors will not take risks in Ukraine because they fear that,
if they get into a legal dispute, the court system is bound to rule against
them and judgments from international arbitration will not be enforced.
The case of Sunola is illustrative. Sunola is a food processing company
in western Ukraine. A U.S. government–capitalized investment fund placed
its money in this enterprise; legal disputes arose; court decisions were
ignored; and Ukrainian courts will not enforce a judgment of the New York
Arbitration Court, even though the founding investment documents clearly
specify that the New York court will be the final arbiter of any disputes.
Private-sector investors cannot help but wonder what their fate would be,
in comparable circumstances, if even a fund with direct support from the
U.S. government encounters such difficulties.
ACCELERATE ACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
Ukrainian officials fully accept the need to join the World Trade Organization
(WTO) to advance their integration with global and regional markets, especially
as European Union (EU) expansion proceeds. They have not, however, organized
themselves for the task. WTO accession, in effect, entails two components:
binding commitments to a nonnegotiable WTO protocol and bilateral negotiations
with
WTO members on goods (i.e., tariffs), agriculture, and services. Most
countries move quickly on the
protocol because the only negotiations involve when they will implement
its terms. Ukraine has had many useful bilateral negotiations on goods,
agriculture, and services but has not taken effective steps to accede to
the WTO protocol. It does not have sufficient staff to review and advance
legislation to accelerate the process. It also does not have the institutional
mechanisms to ensure that new draft laws submitted to parliament are WTO
compliant. This situation needs to change, or it will slow Ukraine’s drive
to integrate into the modern global economic system.
REVITALIZE ENERGY REFORM
After taking important steps toward shifting from barter to cash transactions
in the electricity sector, energy reform has come to a halt. Failure to
act resolutely poses a national security threat—the risk of bankrupting
the country. Even if Ukraine were to collect 100 percent of its electricity
bills, its generating and distribution companies would still lose money.
They currently survive by borrowing monthly, creating enormous liabilities
in the banking sector. In April, Ukraine successfully privatized six companies
that distribute electricity, but it has not met its contractual commitment
to raise tariffs even though the investors have fulfilled the terms of
their contracts. This explicit violation of pre-investment commitments
will scare investors away from future large-scale privatizations. Some
officials argue that higher tariffs would hurt industry and residential
consumers, which is likely true. Industry and consumers will be hurt more,
however, if tariffs are not in-creased and debts continue to mount. Ukraine
will be unable to finance its fuel imports, and the banking sector will
collapse from the unsustainable debt burden. Ukraine also must address
in a straightforward fashion its biggest
barter transactions, and consequently the biggest risk of corruption
in the country: its gas transactions with Russia. Ukraine needs to move
these transactions to a cash basis and seek professional international
management of its gas system if it hopes to demonstrate its reliability
as an energy-transit
country and keep pace in the accelerating race to meet Europe’s burgeoning
energy needs over the next decade.
STRENGTHEN PRIVATE AGRICULTURE
Anyone familiar with Ukraine understands its legendary soil and agricultural
potential. During the past year, Ukraine started to unleash some of that
potential, but advances are fragile. Without private ownership of land,
banks will not provide the type of seasonal financing critical to any agricultural
system. Already 1.7 million land titles (out of 6.5 million) have been
distributed, but those with titles cannot sell their land or use it as
collateral; their titles are, in effect, IOUs that will be paid off once
a land code is passed. While Ukraine works to pass a land code, the process
of tilting should be accelerated and streamlined; otherwise years will
pass before the land code has substantive impact. Agriculture markets also
need to stay in private hands; although the state has a legitimate role
in supporting farmers, it needs to avoid the blatant interventionism in
input and output markets that destroy production incentives and production
capacity. Sound markets and private land together will open the door to
private financing for agriculture and allow the state to focus subsidies
on the poor.
An Opportunity
Ukraine could have its best opportunity today to take a definitive
step forward as a market-economy democracy and to advance its integration
with Europe. Certainly, the challenges are serious. Parliamentary elections
next year will focus more attention on politics than policy. The global
economic
slowdown could affect demand in key export markets and internally within
Ukraine. Issues such as raising electricity tariffs are never politically
popular. The oligarchs, who are unenthusiastic about reforms that threaten
their interests, play an overly large role in Ukraine’s political life
and have concentrated many important media outlets in their hands, which
will complicate further the task of holding a fair election. Nevertheless,
developments favor Ukraine. People have started to see the impact of good
economic policy. The IFES poll shows that 76 percent of the population
thinks that reform is moving too slowly or not at all. As the economy grows,
other reforms are easier to implement. Even within a contentious parliament,
politicians now generally argue for fiscal stability, even if they might
not vote consistently with that outlook.
Internationally, tensions have eased in the Russia-Ukraine relationship,
and Russia’s efforts
to draw closer to the EU defuse the risk of aggressive Ukrainian actions
to integrate with global markets. Indeed, Ukraine cannot afford the risk
that Russia accedes to the WTO and deepens economic ties with Europe while
Ukraine is left behind. In the energy sector, a new gas pipeline will need
to be built from the east to Europe every two years to keep pace with rising
European demand. Ukraine is positioned well to run in this race if it can
demonstrate its reliability as an international partner.
The war against terrorism also makes a difference. Virtually all countries
have started to understand that the world is interlinked more closely than
ever. Ordinary Ukrainians actively discuss the implications of this reality.
Although only a minority of Ukrainians advocates a Ukrainian military role
in a conflict against terrorists, recent polls indicate that only a
few percent believe that terrorism does not affect Ukraine. As has happened
throughout the world, the tragedy of September 11 has created a profound
awareness that the cooperation of all is crucial to combat the threat of
terrorism. Yet that cooperation extends far beyond the military. It means
common attitudes and values toward humanity, common policies toward financial
regulation, sharing of intelligence on crime and terrorism, and cooperation
on law enforcement. In other words, terrorism is a threat to all because
it has broken down international barriers. To combat it, countries also
need to break down barriers and join together in a common cause. In both
the popular and official outlooks, awareness is growing that all countries
really have a choice to make: unite with those who support civilized values,
or oppose a common cause for humanity. For Ukraine, its path to democracy
and market reform and its stance against terrorism can and should reinforce
each other.
After 10 years as an independent state, Ukraine has already achieved
a historic milestone: its future is its own to chart. The agenda forward
is not easy, but it offers hope. For Ukraine, no time is better than now
to forge a consensus in its bid for a decisive place in history and its
bid to find its place as a modern European state.
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